Freedman’s Favorite European Golf Matchup (Jan. 15): Henrik Stenson vs. Tyrrell Hatton in Abu Dhabi
Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Henrik Stenson
- In 2019, Matthew Freedman is writing a new series featuring his favorite prop bet for each day.
- On Tuesday, he looks at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship and the head-to-head tournament matchup of Henrik Stenson and Tyrrell Hatton.
Each day, I publish at least one quick-n’-dirty piece highlighting a favorite prop of mine.
For more information on my research process and the resources I use, see the master list of my 2019 prop bets.
2019 Year-to-Date Record
7-9-2, +5.55 Units
- Golf: 1-1-0, +0.25 Units
- NFL: 3-4-0, +6.35 Units
- NBA: 0-2-0, -2.0 Units
- NHL: 3-1-2, +1.95 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0. -1.0 Units
Freedman’s Favorite European Golf Matchup for Tuesday, Jan. 15: Henrik Stenson (+125) vs. Tyrrell Hatton (-145)
The Pick: Stenson (+125)
Stenson and Hatton tee off in the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship at 10:30 p.m. ET. Stenson is +1,600 to win the event while Hatton is +2,200. To finish in the top 10, Stenson is +160 while Hatton is +220.
But in their head-to-head tournament matchup, Hatton is favored. The lines for the matchup seem to be inefficiently priced.
In the FantasyLabs Golf Models, Hatton has the superior long-term driving distance (295.1 vs. 288.1 yards), but Stenson has the edge in almost every other metric.
- Adjusted round score: 68.3 vs. 68.8
- Greens in regulation: 73.8% vs. 69.2%
- Driving accuracy: 73.8% vs. 62.1%
- Scrambling: 60.7% vs. 57.4%
This matchup is available at MyBookie. I bet Stenson at +130. Given that he’s the better golfer and should almost certainly be favored in this matchup, I’d bet him down to +100.