The Honda Classic is golf’s version of a box-office thriller with more plot twists than anyone could’ve expected.
One of the current leaders entering the weekend could win the tourney or finish 10 shots back. One of the players who made the cut on the number could toil well behind the leaders or climb way back into contention.
All of which makes it fun to watch and tough to bet.
That said, let’s get to our three favorite matchups for the third round.
Keith Mitchell over Sungjae Im (+110)
In the opening round, Jhonattan Vegas posted the low score of the day — 6-under 64 — only to struggle to a 73 on Friday. Im similarly tied the low second-round score with a 64 and should similarly struggle to go low in back-to-back rounds. He’s a tremendous young player, but give me Mitchell’s consistency in the final group.
Sergio Garcia over Brooks Koepka (+110)
I’ll readily admit that my pre-tourney fade Koepka strategy was a flawed one — and laughably so. And yet, now I’m doubling down on it.
Fresh off an even-par round that ended with bogeys on three of his last four holes, I expect Garcia to grind out some more pars on Saturday. Really, though, this one is about value. Getting plus-money for a player with such a strong course fit is a smart play, even if it means fading Koepka again.
Ryan Armour over Fredrik Jacobson (-125)
The last time Jacobson finished inside the top-50 at any event? Thirty months ago, at the 2016 Wyndham Championship. Count me skeptical that Freddy Yock can parlay his current share of fourth place into a strong result this weekend. Armour, on the other hand, hits the ball short, but deadly accurate, which should help in some freshening winds during the afternoon.
