Freedman: 3 Tiger Woods Matchup Bets I’m Eyeing for 2019 PGA Championship

May 15, 2019 05:30 PM EDT
Credit:

Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tiger Woods

  • Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring his favorite prop bets for each day of 2019.
  • The 2019 PGA Championship tees off on Thursday at Bethpage Black.
  • Freedman highlights three Tiger Woods matchups he's betting for the event.

Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.

In this piece, I break down three Tiger Woods matchups I like for the PGA Championship.

For more daily player props, follow me in The Action Network app.

2019 Year-to-Date Record

781-576-42, +126.67 Units

  • NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
  • NBA: 379-282-7, +49.02 Units
  • NHL: 108-97-9, +14.02 Units
  • MLB: 47-53-12, -11.12 Units
  • Golf: 9-9-2, +2.30 Units
  • NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
  • NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
  • NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
  • Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
  • Horse Racing: 1-0-0, +0.04 Units

2019 PGA Championship: Tiger Woods Matchup Bets

When betting PGA matchups, I’ve been most profitable with the majors.

There’s no telling if that trend will hold for the 2019 PGA Championship, but there are a few reasons I think it’s easier to make money betting on props for majors vs. an average tournament.

For one, sportsbooks post way more props for majors, which means that there are simply more opportunities to find exploitable bets.

Additionally, I think the average prop for a major tends to be more inefficient. Maybe that’s because the books are releasing more props, so they’re devoting less time to making sure that any given prop is appropriately priced. Or maybe it’s because there are more casual bettors for the majors, and they move some lines in the wrong direction.

Regardless, I have more action on the PGA Championship than I typically do for most tournaments, so I’ll highlight more than just one head-to-head matchup in this piece.

As it happens — and, remember, I’m not claiming to be a golf expert — I think Tiger Woods is undervalued in the matchup market.

Tiger Woods vs. Rory McIlroy

  • Woods: +145
  • McIlroy: -165

There’s a lot of warranted enthusiasm around McIlroy. He’s in good form, and Bethpage Black suits him well. It’s a long course at a reported 7,468 yards, and Rory has the clear edge over Tiger in long-term driving distance (318 yards vs. 302.5).

But the tournament isn’t being played at a driving range.

As Josh Perry puts it in his betting guide, “This will be as tough a tee-to-green test any course the players will face this year.”