U.S. Open Predictions, Model Picks: Data-Driven Bets for Matchups, Outright Winners

The U.S. Open is my favorite major each year because it tests the best players in the world (but does so fairly), even if the USGA loses the venue here and there. We saw the bad end of that at Shinnecock in 2018 when the Saturday wave got so hard late in the day that Daniel Berger and Tony Finau ended up taking the lead from early in the pack after the leaders ran into a buzzsaw on the course. Who can forget Phil Mickelson running after his ball and illegally playing it before it came to rest?

I don't know if the venue will be as hard this year after the fairways were widened, but the USGA can make it as hard as they want by simply shifting the pin locations. Accuracy was always going to be there because of the fear of finding the five-inch-thick rough, and the overall strategy of model-building is at the forefront of the discussion because of some of those changes.

Let's dive into my 2026 U.S. Open picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week's event.

2026 U.S. Open Outright Picks

Scottie Scheffler +650

For a tournament where everyone has holes that can be poked through them when trying to make a wager, do we find ourselves falling back to the obvious choice to start the year if you had asked everyone their favorite to win the U.S. Open?

I understand that value is the ultimate name of the game, and "who should be favored" is not the decider when making outright bets.

However, I found it interesting when I ran the data how Scheffler managed to grade as the best player over the last 24 rounds, despite a narrative from the public that would have you believing he has fallen completely off as of late.

Sure, the attitude concerns are noteworthy. Testy toward the media, Ted Scott (his caddie), and just about everyone else in the world shows the frustration Scheffler has felt over the last few months of not winning, but the American remains the best fit for Shinnecock through any duration of time we can run the data.

Value is ultimately the name of the game, which is why the drift we have seen up the board on the world number one has me willing to take a shot on him capturing the career grand slam this weekend in New York. This price would have been half of this to start 2026.

Si Woo Kim +4500

What would Si Woo Kim's price be if we had one victory in 2026? What would it have been if he had won twice?

Those are questions we will never know the answer to, but this lack of "win equity" isn't playing well in the market early Monday for names like Kim and Ludvig Aberg, who find themselves drifting to start the week.

Kim ranked inside the top 10 of my model for Weighted Strokes Gained Total, Recent Form (L24 Rounds), Avoiding Mistakes and Weighted Scoring.

I don't really have room to do much outside of a shot or two after taking Scheffler, but Kim was the swing I decided to take on the slate.

2026 U.S. Open Matchup Pick

Si Woo Kim (-125) over Justin Rose

There are a lot of players I like this week who won't be mentioned for more than a second inside this article. Maverick McNealy, Kurt Kitayama, and Aaron Rai are a few of them. The list goes on and on and can be shown in greater depth if you want a deeper dive into any of those names on my X page below.

I realize this number has moved from its -125 open, but I only have one matchup so far this week. I can't make up another play to discuss in this section when options move quickly inside my Discord channel. 

In fairness, I am not fully crediting myself for this answer, even though the channel helped move it marginally. There are two parts beyond that for why this wager has moved.

1. Kim remains undervalued every single week. The market continues to open him lower than they should because of his lack of recent titles. We see this correction take place every Monday.
2. Justin Rose is a volatile option who is seeing a boost because of his "major championship" pedigree.

I am not a believer that Rose should be priced in these general ranges he gets during grand slam events. We have seen the good end of that production at the Masters and PGA Championship, but the floor for Rose is lower than most elite options in the world — something we have witnessed with the Englishman missing the cut at the U.S. Open four of his last five attempts.

I would not be taking this bet into its new -160 (or higher) range. However, shop around and see if you can find better at your location. If nothing else, shop around and see if Kim has any opponents you like him against for the week.

If all else fails, bet Maverick McNealy to make the cut. That is something I have done inside this article during both majors this year and will do again this week.

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