It's been four events since I started running simulations with my PGA model. I haven't had a great year betting the outright market, but we've been profitable since I started running the simulations and comparing my model probabilities to the betting market.
Last week at the 3M Open, we cashed three bets — Ben Kohles Top 10, Zac Blair Top 20, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 20. It wasn't a huge week, but being a profit of three units is always acceptable.
We'll look for another profitable week at the Rocket Classic. This will be the last time Detroit Golf Club hosts the tournament, and the course should play significantly different than it has in the past. We'll get into all of the specifics below, but the course underwent a major restoration following last year's event.
Let's take a look at my Rocket Classic picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's tournament at Detroit Golf Club.
Rocket Classic Preview
Detroit Golf Club has been one of the easiest courses on TOUR over the last five years. This has traditionally been one of those courses where golfers hit it as far as possible off the tee and then look to get hot on the greens. The winning score has landed between -18 and -26 in each of the last five years. However, the course should provide a much tougher test in 2026.
Detroit Golf Club underwent a major restoration following last year's event. The course has changed from a Par 72 to a Par 70, with the 7th and 17th holes both converted into Par 4s. It now measures 7,328 yards, which is quite long for a Par 70. All 18 greens were resurfaced with fresh bentgrass and now average 6,700 square feet. Many of the greens were also elevated, which should make them more difficult to hit in regulation.
The fairways here are narrow (26 yards), but this has historically been one of the best courses on TOUR for bombers. The course is still long, and there's not a huge penalty for missing fairways, so I expect Driving Distance to play a factor once again. It's worth noting that the field hit driver on 86% of non-Par 3 tee shots here last year, one of the highest marks of any course on TOUR.
While driving the ball well will be critical, I expect approach and around-the-green play to have a bigger impact than usual. The new greens should be tougher to hit in regulation, and the course as a whole is expected to play more difficult. Generally, the tougher the course, the more important tee-to-green play becomes, and the less important putting becomes. Obviously, whoever wins will still need to make plenty of putts.
I'm leaning heavily into the ball-striking angle this week, which means I don't mind taking chances on some bad putters.
Rocket Classic Predictions, Picks
The top 10 and top 20 bets have been solid over the last few weeks. If we could add in an outright win or two over the next couple of months, I will consider the simulations a smashing success. As we do every week, let's take a look at the results from the 20,000 simulations that I ran for the Rocket Classic:
The model probabilities are in the first three columns, the market odds are in the middle three columns, and the differences are in the final three columns. For reference, green = good value compared to market odds.
Jake Knapp to Win (+3200, DraftKings) and Top 10 (+380, DraftKings)
Like many, I've been tempted to bet Knapp over the last few weeks. I decided to wait until I saw one good week from him before making the bet, as it's tough to win when you are in bad form.
He suffered a thumb injury that really derailed his 2026 campaign, but he finally seems to be over it. At last week's 3M Open, he shot 9-under in the final round to finish in the top 15.
More importantly, he gained over 10 strokes ball striking. He now gets to play on one of the most bomber-friendly courses on the PGA TOUR. His approach play has been fantastic all year, and he's 1st in the field in Birdie or Better % over the last 6 months.
I'm not putting much stock into course history this week, but it certainly doesn't hurt that Knapp finished T4 here last year. I'm betting the outright and the top 10.
Wyndham Clark to Win (+2200, bet365) and Top 10 (+300, BetRivers)
Clark is coming off a missed cut at the Open Championship, but he was in terrific form before that. He had a 6-event stretch where he picked up 2 wins (U.S. Open and CJ CUP Byron Nelson) and didn't finish outside of the top 15.
The best part is that during this stretch, he's been gaining strokes with all parts of his game. He tends to be a streaky golfer, so I like to bet on him when he's playing well.
Given his form and the weak field, I like both his outright and top 10 odds this week.
For the first time ever, I hope he says he's going to celebrate by "opening some grape" after his round on Sunday.
Jackson Suber Top 10 (+850, DraftKings) and Top 20 (+380, FanDuel)
Suber is coming off a missed cut at the 3M Open, but we shouldn't be concerned in the slightest. For starters, he gained over 2 strokes on approach. More importantly, we can expect these young golfers to be volatile week to week.
Even with the missed cut, Suber has posted top 10 finishes in 3 of his last 8 events. He's plenty long off the tee and is one of the best iron players in the field.
I'm not sure if he's ready to win yet like Jackson Koivun, but I love his odds to finish in the top 10 and the top 20.
Davis Thompson Top 20 (+280, FanDuel)
Thompson is one of the best ball strikers in the field. He's long off the tee and is top 20 in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach.
He's been very hit-or-miss this season, but the underlying statistics continue to be solid. Honestly, he just needs to find a little more consistency with his short game. He's coming off a solid performance at the 3M Open where he gained over 10 strokes ball striking.
With the changes to the course, I'm not factoring in history too much this week.
However, it doesn't hurt that he's finished in the top 35 at this event in each of the last 3 years.
Doug Ghim Top 20 (+380, FanDuel)
Ghim doesn't have a great track record at Detroit Golf Club, but the changes should actually make this a better course for him. His biggest strength is his driving and his iron play.
He often struggles in birdie fests because he doesn't make enough putts to contend. With the course expected to play tougher, his ball striking alone could carry him to a top 20 finish.
Nicolai Hojgaard Top 20 (+210, FanDuel)
Hojgaard was a top 10 machine early in the year. He was playing so well that we all thought it was only a matter of time before he picked up his first PGA TOUR win.
However, golf is tricky, and he struggled with his form for a few months. He's not in tremendous form at the moment, but he’s finished in the top 30 in 2 of his last 3 events.
He’s a bomber off the tee, he’s an elite iron player, and he rates out well in my Weighted Proximity and Expected Hole Performance metrics.
Units in play this week: 9
Good luck!
