2024 PLL Championship Series Picks: California Redwoods vs. Philadelphia Waterdogs Best Bet
Photo courtesy of PLL
The Premier Lacrosse League Championship Series started off with a high-scoring affair between the Boston Cannons and California Redwoods, while the Philadelphia Waterdogs notched a multi-goal victory over the Utah Archers in a lower-scoring contest. At the start of this round robin tournament, I gave my four tips for betting the PLL Championship Series. Now, I’m back with a best bet for Friday’s first matchup featuring the California Redwoods and Philadelphia Waterdogs.
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
California Redwoods vs. Philadelphia Waterdogs
| California (-1.5) Odds | -115 |
| Philadelphia (+1.5) Odds | -115 |
| Total | 48 |
| Time | Friday · 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
As expected, shooting beyond the arc was a main focal point for most teams in the first two games of the PLL Championship Series. The Cannons-Redwoods game in particular saw 11 two-point goals scored in a game that finished with a 26-25 California victory. Meanwhile, the Waterdogs dropped 21 points on Utah and while they only scored three 2-pointers, attempted 16 two-point shots. However, despite the strong two-point shooting volume and generally fast pace of both games, I’m actually betting the total in the Redwoods-Waterdogs game to stay under its current mark of 48.
While the Redwoods obviously have a lot of players who can shoot from range, they took the fewest two-point shots (11) and were much more selective with their attempts. I also got the sense the Redwoods didn’t want to get into a track meet with Boston, and while they showed they could play fast if needed, they slowed down the pace on offense as the game progressed and played much better defense in front of Tim Troutner in the second half.
On the subject of goaltending, I thought both Troutner and Jack Kelly played well despite seeing a league-high 50 shots, including 18 shots from beyond the arc. Kelly and Troutner stopped a combined 66.7% of two-point shots and each finished with a save percentage above 43%. Only one goalie among those with a minimum of two games played finished above 40% in last year’s series.
Furthermore, while the Redwoods’ first game finished with 51 points, the final total would have been closer to 48 or 49 had Boston not scored a late two-point goal that was an inch from counting as just one point. Matt Campbell’s two-point goal with 33 seconds left ended up forcing overtime, where another goal was scored, inflating the final total to 51.
As for Philadelphia’s first game, goaltender Matt DeLuca stole the show. DeLuca finished with 13 saves, including a few breakaways, and posted the second-best save percentage (46.4%) and lowest goals against total with 18. While DeLuca deserves a lot of credit, Philadelphia played really strong defense in front of him, allowing him to see just 42 shots — the lowest number so far, with California’s 43 shots the next lowest. Similar to California, the Waterdogs offense was patient and methodical. I don’t see them looking to push the tempo too much either, and while their two-point success rate could go up, I don’t expect it to increase enough for this game to reach 48 goals or more.
With games on Saturday and Sunday, I expect both teams to take their time on offense and work for higher quality shots. While both teams have a handful of threats from two-point range, I expect the defenses to be the story of this game and recommend betting this game to stay under 48 points at -120 on DraftKings.
Pick: Under 48
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