National Lacrosse League Betting Picks: NLL Week 8 Best Bets for Saturday (Jan. 20)

The National Lacrosse League Week 8 slate continues with four more games on Saturday. The Buffalo Bandits lost on Friday (and we cashed both our bets), setting up a battle for the top four spots in the standings. I have a betting angle for each of the Saturday games and even give out a title future to bet before the games get underway.

Here are my National Lacrosse League betting picks.

If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.

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Albany FireWolves vs. San Diego Seals

Odds via bet365. Sign up with Action's bet365 bonus code to get bonus bets for all the upcoming National Lacrosse League matches!

No one would have expected the Albany FireWolves to enter their Week 8 game against San Diego with a 6-0 record, yet here we are. For the first time, Albany is a 1.5-point favorite on every sportsbook and while the game is still near a pick ‘em on the moneyline, meaning the market has finally given them the respect they deserve.

Unfortunately, that means any edge that Albany had in the betting market has mostly dried up and I don’t think San Diego’s price is long enough to make this the time to fade Albany.

Instead of betting a side in this game, I recommend betting Albany to win the 2024 NLL Championship at +1500 at BetRivers. In fact, if you haven’t already, I’m begging you to bet this. Not betting the team at the top of the standings that is currently 6-0 through a third of the NLL season at this price is betting malpractice. Of the 11 previous teams to start 6-0 in a full NLL season, four of them have won the NLL Championship (36.37%), five made it to the NLL Finals (45.45%) and all of them made the playoffs.

The FireWolves implied odds based on the price of +1500 is just 6.25%. Just going off history, that’s an edge of 30.12%. Yet, even if Albany loses to San Diego on Saturday, only five of their remaining 11 games are against teams currently with a record of 0.500 or better. With their odds at +650 or shorter everywhere else, this is the best way to bet Albany this weekend.

If you don’t want to tie your money up in the futures market, there are two player props I also like in this game. While I’m hesitant to fade Albany on the spread, I once again am going to bet Ethan Walker to stay under his points prop. While the number isn’t nearly as inflated as it was two weeks ago when we cashed in on his under of 6.5 points, I think 4.5 points is again too high against a solid San Diego defense.

Walker cleared this mark in the first four games of the season, but has stayed under in his tow-most recent games against overall tougher defenses and will face another top-five defense in the Seals, who are allowing the fifth-lowest shooting percentage to opponents so far this season. While this may feel like a buy-low spot, the Seals should keep Walker under his points prop once again. Bet Walker to go under 4.5 points at +115 on bet365.

I’m also targeting Austin Staats to record a hat trick. Albany’s defense played one of its better games last week, but they still rank bottom-five in shots defended according to LaxMetrics. Furthermore, Albany goaltender Doug Jamieson is only stopping 60% of one-on-one chances, which is 11th among starters. Staats is one of the best at winning his individual matchups and he should have plenty of chances to surpass his prop of 2.5 goals.

Staats has had three or more goals in 12 of his last 22 games including three of five games this season. His matchup with Albany should be a great opportunity to go over 2.5 goals again at +100 on bet365.

Picks: Ethan Walker Under 4.5 Points, Austin Staats Over 2.5 Goals, Albany FireWolves to Win NLL Championship (+1000 or better)

Toronto Rock vs. Georgia Swarm

Odds via bet365. Sign up with Action's bet365 bonus code to get bonus bets for all the upcoming National Lacrosse League matches!

Another game that could shake up the standings is the Toronto Rock hosting the Georgia Swarm. Toronto is a 1.5-point favorite and the total is 22.5 across sportsbooks.

While Toronto is certainly one of the best teams in the NLL, this game feels very similar to Georgia’s earlier matchup with Buffalo. In fact, the lines are almost identical, with the Swarm being as high as +170 on the moneyline once again and even 2.5-point underdogs on bet365.

This line is way off.

I’d have been inclined to stay away from betting a side in this game had Georgia been priced as slight underdogs at +130 or less. Yet, +170 is way too long for a team that had a case for being considered the top team in the NLL last week (and still has a strong case even after last week’s loss.)

Toronto’s 4-0 start is no fluke, but these two teams are far closer than their records indicate. 

Georgia and Toronto’s offensive ratings are eerily similar, with the Swarm posting a 124.35 and the Rock posting a 126.58. The similarities continue on defense with Toronto holding teams to a 13.5% shooting percentage—best in the league—and Georgia right behind them with a 13.6% shooting percentage allowed. While both teams thrive in transition, Georgia has the slight edge, generating a league-high 14 breakaway chances and scoring on five of them. Through four games, Toronto has allowed six breakaway chances and two breakaway goals.

As far as injuries go, Swarm will likely be without TJ Comizio again and his absence was felt last week. However, Georgia’s defense is deep and they still held Albany to just 11 goals prior to a late empty-netter. Toronto will be without both TD Ierlan and Josh Jubenville, with Ierlan’s absence expected to be felt the most late in this game if the score is tight. Ierlan has been dominant at winning Toronto extra possessions and helping them close out games late.

Now, 2023 NLL MVP finalist Tom Schreiber is listed as questionable, which would be a massive boost for Toronto. Yet, even if Schreiber does play, the Swarm still has value as this big of an underdog and Schreiber’s possible activation shouldn’t scare you away.

Bet a full unit on Georgia +1.5 (+105 on BetRivers) and a half unit on Georgia to win outright at +170 on bet365.

Picks: Georgia Swarm +1.5 (1 unit), Georgia Swarm ML (0.5 unit)

Saskatchewan Rush vs. Vancouver Warriors

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. When betting lacrosse, register with Action Network's FanDuel Sportsbook promo code today for a sign-up offer.

Two teams looking to get their second win of the season are the Saskatchewan Rush and Vancouver Warriors

Despite their records, both teams have played well against some stiff competition. While I think the Rush hold a slight edge in this matchup even as 1.5-point favorites, the total is the best way to bet this game. At 23.5, this total may seem rather normal for these two teams, Yet, I’m expecting an offensive outburst from both these teams.

If I told you the Rush have the highest-rated offense through eight weeks, would you believe me?

According to LaxMetrics, Saskatchewan boasts the best offensive rating with 144.62 and are averaging 13.3 goals per game. They’ve also been playing at a fairly fast pace, generating 10 breakaway chances and scoring on a league-high six of them.

Vancouver’s offense on the other hand has been fairly inconsistent, scoring 11 goals or more in three games, but just seven goals in their other two. Yet, like Saskatchewan, they’ve thrived in transition, generating nine breakaway chances and tying the Rush for an NLL-best six breakaway goals.

Neither defense has been particularly great, with Vancouver ranking ninth in shots defended and Saskatchewan even worse at 13th. Expect both offenses to perform on Saturday night and bet this total to go over 23.5 at +100 on FanDuel.

Picks: Over 23.5

Colorado Mammoth vs. Calgary Roughnecks

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook. When betting lacrosse, register with Action Network's Caesars Sportsbook promo code today for a sign-up offer.

The two Western Conference finalists from last year meet on Saturday night, but both have been trending in different directions. After an 0-2 start, Calgary has won two straight and has sneakily been one of the better teams in the league. Meanwhile, last year’s runner-ups in Colorado have dropped their last two games and haven’t managed to score more than eight goals in three of their five games this season.

Colorado is continuing to be overrated despite all the advanced metrics painting them as the worst team in the league. Despite having 2022 NLL Finals MVP Dillon Ward in net, the Mammoth defense ranks last in shots defended, allowing opponents to score on 20.1% of shots. Can you guess which team is last in offensive rating?

That’s right, also Colorado.

The Mammoth also rank 15th in offensive rating and are the only team to not have a rating above 100, posting a 90.78 through five games. It won’t get any easier for this offense as they face a Calgary defense that ranks third in shots defended with a 14.0% shooting percentage allowed.

The Roughnecks not only hold a significant edge on defense, but also offense. While Ward has been playing better as of late, he’ll face a Calgary offense that ranks second in offensive rating and generating the second-most breakaway chances (13) and goals (5). This a perfect spot to bet Calgary to cover as a 1.5-point favorite at -110.

Pick: Calgary Roughnecks -1.5