National Lacrosse League Betting Picks: NLL Week 9 Best Bets

National Lacrosse League Betting Picks: NLL Week 9 Best Bets

Week 9 in the National Lacrosse League features five Saturday games and I have a bets for four of them. Let’s take a look at the three sides and one total I’m betting tonight.

If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.

Toronto Rock vs. Buffalo Bandits

Odds via ESPN Bet. Sign up with Action's ESPN Bet's bonus code to get bonus bets for all the upcoming National Lacrosse League games!

The biggest matchup of the weekend features the 5-0 Toronto Rock hosting the 2023 NLL Champions in Buffalo—who have eliminated Toronto from the playoffs in three straight seasons.

The Bandits have dominated the series as of late, winning six of these teams’ last seven matchups and, despite Toronto playing like the better team through eight weeks and being favored in this game, the sportsbooks have appeared to factor this history into the line.

Yet, I expect the Rock to win on Saturday and do so by multiple goals. I don’t expect a full-on blowout from Toronto, but I do think they can get out to a multi-goal lead and maintain it against their rivals.

Buffalo’s offense has underperformed, ranking ninth in expected goals with -1.80, but rank second in total first order chances—which measures quality scoring chances, including quality passes that don’t end in goals—per game with 29, according to LaxMetrics. We’re beginning to see the Bandits convert on these chances more as of late, but I don’t expect a breakout performance against this Rock defense.

Toronto ranks second in shot defended, allowing opposing offenses to score on just 14.7% of shots. Rock netminder Nick Rose is starting to run away with the 2024 Goaltender of the Year award, delivering impressive performances every game. Rose has a league-best 8.91 robberies per 60 minutes and has stopped 74.2% of one-on-one shots that he’s faced in the last three games and has done so against some good offenses. Toronto’s defense as a whole has yet to allow more than 10 goals in a game and leads the league in goals against average with just 8.6 goals per game.

However, the biggest edge can be found in Toronto’s offense going against an inconsistent Buffalo defense. The Bandits have allowed 13 or more goals in back-to-back games and will face a Rock offense that ranks fourth in offensive rating and third in goals over expectation with 4.56. This Toronto offense is getting hot at the right time and will also be getting 2023 NLL MVP finalist Tom Schreiber back in the lineup for the first time this season. Buffalo has also struggled to defend transition chances as of late and could be susceptible to a Toronto offense that loves to push in transition.

While this may feel like a buy-low on Buffalo, sell-high on Toronto spot, I think it’s the opposite. Bet Toronto to not only win, but also cover the 1.5-point spread at +110 on ESPN Bet.

Pick: Toronto Rock -1.5

Philadelphia Wings vs. San Diego Seals

Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook. Sign up with Action's Bet Rivers bonus code to get bonus bets for all the upcoming National Lacrosse League games!

After a long break, the Philadelphia Wings return to action as home underdogs to the San Diego Seals. San Diego is coming off a big win in Albany, handing the FireWolves their first loss of the season.

With the exception of their loss to Las Vegas a couple weeks ago, San Diego has performed as well as expected. The high-powered San Diego offense, which ranks second in offensive rating, got another boost in Mac O’Keefe, who re-joined the team earlier this month and already has four goals through two games. Austin Staats is scoring at will, Wes Berg is a sneaky MVP candidate and Curtis Dickson and Dane Dobbie have a combined 53 points so far this season. It truly is “pick your poison” with this offense.

They’ll face a defense that started out strong, in large part due to goaltender Zach Higgins, but is starting to come back down to earth. Philadelphia has surrendered at least 15 goals in three straight games and the offense hasn’t managed to keep up. Philly’s offense is currently middle of the pack but has only faced one defense in the top three of defensive shooting percentage (second-ranked Toronto) and draws the third-ranked Seals this week.

Philadelphia has been known to surprise in certain games where they appear outmatched, but I don’t think they’ll have enough firepower to get past this San Diego defense. Bet the Seals to win and cover the 1.5-point spread at -115 on BetRivers.

Pick: San Diego Seals -1.5

New York Riptide vs. Georgia Swarm

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Sign up with Action's Caesars Sportsbook bonus code to get bonus bets for all the upcoming National Lacrosse League games!

My favorite spot on Saturday comes in the New York Riptide hosting the Georgia Swarm. New York is coming off a huge win over Buffalo, while Georgia is looking to snap a two-game losing streak as 1.5-point favorites.

Despite their two recent losses to Albany and Toronto, I still consider Georgia to be a top-five team and their losses to both those teams were closer than the final score indicated. Georgia still boasts the league’s best defense, allowing an NLL-low 13.5% shooting percentage to opposing offenses.

While their offense has struggled in recent weeks, they’ve played two great goaltenders in Nick Rose and Doug Jamieson and their multi-goal losses in recent weeks deserves some nuance. Three of their goals in the past two games have been waived off—two due to shot clock violations by mere millisecond—and they’ve allowed two empty net goals at the end of games. This team is much closer to being 6-1 at the top of the standings than 4-3. Despite this scoring variance, the offense has done a good job of protecting the ball, boasting the league’s third-best possession termination ratio according to LaxMetrics.

Georgia’s offense has also been great at generating transition opportunities, which New York has struggled to defend. Georgia ranks first in breakaway chances with 15 and second in breakaway goals with five. They’ll face a Riptide defense that has allowed 13 breakaway chances and three breakaway goals this season. The settled Ripride defense isn’t much better, ranking 13th out of 15 teams with an opposing shooting percentage of 18.9%. The Swarm offense should be able to get right against New York and their defense should be able to hold Jeff Teat and Co. in check enough to win by a healthy margin.

This spread should be 2.5, so I recommend making this a two-unit play and betting Georgia Swarm -1.5 at -105 on Caesars.

Pick: Georgia Swarm -1.5 (2 units)

Las Vegas Desert Dogs vs. Panther City Lacrosse Club

Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook. Sign up with Action's Bet Rivers bonus code to get bonus bets for all the upcoming National Lacrosse League games!

The final game of the night features two teams that have suffered from offensive woes so far. Panther City is a slight favorite in a rematch from Week 2 that saw Las Vegas score in the final seconds to force overtime and eventually win, 11-10.

Rather than bet a side, I recommend betting this game to stay under 22.5 points.

The Desert Dogs have yet to score more than 11 goals in a game and are averaging a league-low 9.4 goals per game. Panther City’s offense is not much better, averaging 11 goals per game and scoring 12 or more points just once against the third-worst defense in New York. Both teams also have an offensive rating in the bottom-three, ahead of only Colorado heading into this weekend.

The strength of both teams has lied in their defenses. Both are in the top half of the league in defensive shooting percentage and have put up impressive performances against high-ranked offenses like Toronto and San Diego. Vegas netminder Landon Kells struggled early on but has started to show significant improvement, making a season-high 44 saves in a 10-8 win against San Diego last game. Panther City goaltender Nick Damude has also played well, ranking third in saves per 60 minutes among starting goalies according to LaxMetrics.

The last meeting between these teams was a second away from finishing with a total of 19 goals and I expect a similar defensive battle for this one. Bet this meeting to be low-scoring as well and to stay under 22.5 at -113 on BetRivers.

Pick: Under 22.5