NCAA Lacrosse Betting Odds, Picks: Best Bets for Week 6

The NCAA Division I men’s lacrosse season rolls on with another busy weekend slate. For Week 6, I’m picking an underdog to cover a short spread and potentially win outright, another underdog to keep it close with one of the nation’s top teams and a total between two ranked squads. Let’s take a look at the games I’m betting on.

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Lehigh vs. Army (-2.5)

Odds via BetMGM.

The first Saturday matchup I’m looking at is a Patriot League battle between 15th-ranked Army and unranked Lehigh. Both teams enter this game with 5-1 records, with sportsbooks pegging Army as 2.5-point favorites.

Army enters riding a five-game win streak that started with a big upset win over Rutgers at West Point. Since that win, Army has beaten the likes of Wagner, Mercer, Holy Cross and Lafayette — not the toughest of competition.

Lehigh’s schedule hasn’t been that much of a juggernaut either, defeating Fairfield, Hobart, Binghamton and Holy Cross. The 13-10 win over Navy was impressive at the time, though the jury is out on how good the streaky Midshipmen are. Lehigh played last year’s runner-up, Cornell, tight for two quarters, before getting shut out in the second half.

These teams play similarly, with both ranking in the top 16 in pace and boasting the 10th and 11th most efficient defenses. Looking at these two teams, I feel this game should be priced closer to a pick ‘em and actually give the edge to Lehigh, who beat an arguably more talented Black Knights team last year in a one-goal thriller.

Army’s offense has been slightly more efficient, with the Black Knights scoring on 31.6% of possessions compared to Lehigh’s 28.8%, according to Lacrosse Reference. But Lehigh’s numbers are slightly skewed due to its performance against Cornell, when the Mountain Hawks only scored on 10% of opportunities and turned the ball over on 46% of possessions. Despite this, they’re still shooting the ball seventh-best in the nation at 35.5%. If Lehigh can limit the turnovers, we should see its offense produce.

The biggest advantage Lehigh will have is Mike Sisselberger, who’s widely considered one of the best faceoff men in the country and facing off at 61.1% this season. He’s helped Lehigh to a 55.8% possession advantage, which ranks second in NCAA Division I men’s lacrosse. His opponent, Army’s Will Coletti, is no slouch either, recording a 63.8% faceoff percentage. Yet, if we go back to last season, Sisselberger managed to handle Coletti pretty easily, winning 68% of faceoffs in their 2022 meeting.

If Sisselberger can dominate again and give Lehigh a significant possession advantage, I think the Mountain Hawks will be able to cover and likely win outright. While I think Lehigh will win straight up, betting +2.5 at the current price of -115 is the safer bet.

My official play is to bet a full unit on Lehigh +2.5 (-115 on BetMGM) and a half-unit on the moneyline (+165 on BetMGM).

Picks: Lehigh +2.5 (1 unit) | Lehigh ML (0.5 unit).

Michigan vs. Notre Dame (-6.5)

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook.

Notre Dame has started the season off with a 5-0 record, including big wins over Maryland and Ohio State, and the No. 2 ranking in college lacrosse. The Fighting Irish enter their matchup with a 4-2 Michigan as 6.5-point favorites.

Notre Dame is 4-1 against the spread and has covered all three of its games against ranked teams, but the spread being offered on Caesars is the largest its had against a ranked opponent this season. Likewise, Michigan is 4-2 against the spread and has covered all three of its games as an underdog. A good litmus test for the Wolverines was their ability to cover as 7.5-point underdogs against the top-ranked Virginia Cavaliers in a 17-13 loss.

Michigan’s gameplan in this one will be to rely on the nation's 12th-best faceoff unit and sixth-most efficient offense. Notre Dame may have the second-most efficient offense, but its one weakness has been a faceoff unit that ranks 46th.

Michigan’s faceoff duo of Nick Rowlett (62.7%) and Justin Wietfeldt (56.3%) should help its offense go on runs and keep the ball away from Notre Dame’s lethal attack led by the Kavanagh brothers. While I don’t think the Wolverines have a good enough defense to ultimately stop Notre Dame, I think this spread is far too big for the Irish to cover in Ann Arbor. Bet Michigan +6.5 (-110 on Caesars.)

Pick: Michigan +6.5.

Ohio State (-1.5) vs. Denver

Odds via FanDuel.

On Sunday, Ohio State travels to Denver to take on the Pioneers. Ohio State is a 1.5-point favorite at most sportsbooks and the total is set at 23.5. I'm expecting this clash to produce a low-scoring affair that falls below the total.

Denver should have the faceoff advantage, allowing them to control the tempo of this game. Denver is traditionally a slower-paced team and currently ranks 32nd in pace, which should allow them to keep it slow. Its attack has also been woefully inefficient, ranking 56th in offensive efficiency. Ohio State’s offense doesn’t inspire much more confidence in a high-scoring game either. The Buckeyes are 25th in offensive efficiency and play at the nation’s 68th-slowest pace.

Only three of Ohio State’s seven games have gone over 23.5. In four games against ranked opponents, only one of them has surpassed 23 goals. As for Denver, its 14-13 overtime thriller with Duke is the only game to surpass this total and the average total in its six games this year has been 20.7. Bet this game to stay under 23.5 (-110 on FanDuel.)

Pick: Under 23.5.