Premier Lacrosse League Odds, Picks & Betting Preview: 7 Favorite Prop Bets for Week 8
BALTIMORE, MD – JUNE 26: Redwoods attack Rob Pannell (3) protects the ball from Chaos defense Jarrod Neumann (88) during a game between the Redwoods and the Chaos on June 26, 2021 at Homewood Field in Baltimore, MD. (Photo by John McCreary/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
- It's Week 8 of the Premier Lacrosse League, and our analyst has found plenty of betting value.
- Hutton Jackson breaks down the slate and offers up best bets for each matchup.
- Continue reading for Jackson's picks and analysis.
Week 8 in the Premier Lacrosse League features one of the most competitive slate of matchups so far this season and both DraftKings and BetMGM have plenty of options when it comes to player props.
Those who tailed my prop bets last week went 4-1 and took home 2.7 units in the process. So, let’s take a look at this week’s four-game slate and see if we can have another winning week of betting PLL player props.
If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check outmy guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.
Archers (-1.5) vs. Atlas
|Time||Saturday, 2 p.m. ET|
Odds via BetMGM.
The Atlas take on Archers in a battle between the two most efficient and highest-scoring offenses in the league. While many eyes will be on MVP candidates Jeff Teat and Will Manny, an under-the-radar player to monitor is Eric Law.
While Teat and Chris Gray may get most of the fanfare when discussing the Atlas attack line, Law is the glue that keeps this attack line together and has quietly put up 18 points in 2022 — tied for eighth best in the PLL. Law greatly benefits from Teat and Gray drawing the most attention on offense and has connected with both on numerous goals as both a scorer and feeder.
His points prop on DraftKings and BetMGM is 2.5 this week, despite drawing 3.5 in other weeks. He is also coming off his third straight three-point performance and his fourth game with three or more points this season. When considering his 2021 season as well, Law has recorded three or more points in 11 of his past 17 games. While previous matchups aren’t necessarily indicative of future success, Law also scored three goals on six shots when these two teams met several weeks ago.
Despite being juiced to the over at -150, I recommend betting Law over 2.5 points and would play this up to -165.
Pick: Eric Law Over 2.5 Points
Whipsnakes (-1.5) vs. Chrome
|Time||Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET|
Odds via BetMGM.
The Whipsnakes and Chrome face off for the first time this season and both will have a chance to claim the top spot in the standings, depending on the outcome of Archers vs. Atlas.
Chrome attacker Logan Wisnauskas is expected to rejoin the lineup after missing last week. Not only does that benefit Chrome as a whole, but it also helps his line mate, Dylan Molloy. Along with Brendan Nichtern, Molloy drew most of the attention from the Waterdogs defense last week with Wisnauskas out. Wisnauskas allows that attack line to balance the field and the result has been Molloy recording three or more points in four of those five games.
Likely due to Molloy’s one-point performance last week, BetMGM and DraftKings have set his points prop at 2.5 — a number he should be able to clear with the Chrome attack line at full strength. Even with the over juiced at -150, it’s worth betting on Molloy to exceed 2.5 points.
On the flipside, a player who could benefit from a teammate missing time is Colin Squires. Whipsnakes starting LSM Michael Ehrhardt missed last week due to injury and is also questionable to play this weekend. This elevated Squires from LSM #2 to the top pole at the midfield last week and the result was a season-high six groundballs.
Squires’ groundball prop is 2.5 this week and he has flirted with this number a few times, even with Ehrhardt in the lineup. Even if Ehrhardt plays this week, Squires should have a more substantial role facing a Chrome team that loves to push in transition, which often leads to more groundball opportunities for LSMs. Bet over 2.5 on Squires’ groundball prop at even money.
Picks: Dylan Molloy Over 2.5 Points, Colin Squires Over 2.5 Groundballs
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Waterdogs (-1.5) vs. Cannons
|Time||Sunday, 1 p.m. ET|
Odds via BetMGM.
The Cannons and Waterdogs face off for the first time since Week 1. The last time these two teams faced, the Cannons secured a 16-10 victory, thanks in part to Lyle Thompson’s four-goal performance and Nick Marrocco’s 19-save effort. While the Waterdogs as a whole have been trending upward since starting the season 0-3, the defense still ranks first in most fast-break goals allowed.
Unfortunately for the Waterdogs, they get to face the most efficient transition offense in the league this week. The Cannons are shooting a league-best 55.2% on fast breaks. Additionally, the Waterdogs rank last in fast-break defense and are allowing a league-worst 43% fast break conversion rate and 51.3% shooting percentage in transition.
Lyle Thompson has been lethal on the fast break and had four goals and two assists in these two teams’ previous meeting. While a four-goal performance is a lot to ask of any other player, Thompson has scored four or more in six of his past 15 games (40%). You can bet over 3.5 goals for Thompson at +130, which has an implied probability of 43.5%. While you can also bet over 2.5 goals for Thompson as well, his probability based on the past 15 games rises to only 53%, which is much lower than the implied probability of 66.7% for it’s current price of -200.
Given the implied probability’s closeness to the actual probability for the first bet and an overall favorable matchup for Thompson, I recommend betting over 3.5 goals at +130.
On the opposite end of the field is Cannons goaltender Nick Marrocco, who boasts the league’s second most saves per game (13.8), both a testament to Marrocco’s play and an indictment of the weak defense in front of him.
The Cannons defense has given up second-most shots in the league (253) and will be without their ageless defender Brodie Merrill this weekend. Furthermore, the Waterdogs take the second-most shots in the league, but have just the sixth-best shooting percentage. They are also tied with the Whipsnakes for highest percentage of possessions that end with a save.
The data suggests Marrocco should see a lot of shots in this game and after successfully betting the under on his 15.5 saves prop last game, now is the perfect time to bet over 13.5 saves.
Finally, a player between the lines who could have a big impact on the groundball battle is Ryland Rees. He is a key part of the Waterdogs wing play on faceoffs and should benefit from starting faceoff athlete Jake Withers’ return to the lineup. Since 2021, Rees has averaged 3.45 groundballs per game when Withers is facing off and has scooped up three or more groundballs in seven of those 11 games.
You can bet Rees to secure over 2.5 groundballs at +135 on BetMGM and I would bet this prop all the way to +120.
Picks: Lyle Thompson Over 3.5 Goals, Nick Marrocco Over 13.5 Saves, Ryland Rees Over 2.5 Groundballs
Redwoods (-1.5) vs. Chaos
|Time||Sunday, 3:30 p.m. ET|
Odds via BetMGM.
The Redwoods and Chaos square off for the second time this season and there’s one player in particular who has a favorable matchup.
Rob Pannell’s production as a goal scorer has dipped since joining the PLL in 2020. During the first seven seasons of his career, the 2018 MVP averaged 2.59 goals per game. Yet since 2020, the 32-year-old attackman has averaged just 1.35 goals per game. As Pannell has gotten older, he’s carved up defenses more as a passer than as a dodger. In 2022, Pannell has only had one multi-goal game and this production has resulted in both BetMGM and DraftKings setting his goals prop at 1.5. However, that one multi-goal game in 2022 came against his upcoming opponent: Chaos. In the Redwoods’ first win of the season, Pannell recorded three goals on five shots.
Chaos is a team that would rather leave defenders on an island in hopes of winning their one-on-one matchups. They rarely slide and trust 2021 MVP and three-time goaltender of the year Blaze Riorden to make stops. However, without Johnny Surdick this season, that strategy hasn’t worked too well and the Chaos defense has allowed goals at a league-worst 32% per possession in settled offense. They’ve also allowed a league-high 213 shots during settled offense. No other defense has allowed more than 170 shots.
Both the style of defense and poor play of Chaos set up a nice matchup for Pannell, who may be more inclined to dodge to score this weekend with fewer defenders sliding to him. Another encouraging sign this season is when Pannell is shooting, he’s scoring on 29% of his shots — his best shooting percentage since his 2018 MVP season.
Overall, the Chaos defense presents a good matchup for Pannell to exceed his goals prop of 1.5 and at +115 it is a good price to bet on the vet to score a pair of goals.
Pick: Rob Pannell Over 1.5 Goals
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