USA and Germany meet in the preliminary round for the 2026 Winter Olympics. Puck drop is set for 3:10 p.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on USA and streamed on Peacock.
USA is favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-115o/ +100u). USA is a -850 favorite to win outright, while Germany is +650 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my USA vs Germany predictions and Olympics picks.
USA vs. Germany Odds, Pick
| Germany Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +125 | 6.5 O -115/ U +100 | +650 |
| USA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -145 | 6.5 O -115/ U +100 | -850 |
- USA vs. Germany Puck Line: USA -2.5 (-145), Germany +2.5 (+125)
- USA vs. Germany Over/Under: 6.5 (-115o / +100u)
- USA vs. Germany Moneyline: USA -850, Germany +650
USA vs. Germany Preview
USA
The United States has cruised through its first two games of the tournament, defeating Latvia 5-1 and Denmark 6-3. That second game against Denmark is likely keeping the U.S. spread at an actionable price, and it may be time to take advantage.
A three-goal win against Denmark may not appear dominant at first glance, but the United States controlled play throughout. The score could have been more lopsided if not for a shaky performance from goaltender Jeremy Swayman.
That was likely Swayman’s only start of the tournament, however, as the Americans are expected to turn back to Connor Hellebuyck moving forward.
Hellebuyck is not only the best goaltender in the world, he is also one of the best players in hockey. Last season, he became the first goaltender since Carey Price to win the Hart Trophy.
He started the opener against Latvia, stopping 17 of 18 shots for a .944 save percentage in a 5-1 victory. That success is likely to continue against Germany.
Germany
Germany is coming off a surprising 4-3 loss to Latvia on Saturday. While the transitive property would suggest the United States should have no issue covering -2.5, it is not quite that simple.
Germany is capable of a stronger performance on Sunday.
That said, it lacks the depth to match up with the United States. While Germany features top-tier talent in Leon Draisaitl, Tim Stutzle and Moritz Seider, the rest of the roster does not compare to the balanced lines the Americans can roll out.
Germany is also at a disadvantage in net, with Philipp Grubauer likely to start for the second consecutive day on a back-to-back. It would be surprising if Germany turned to one of its other goaltenders, as neither has NHL experience.
USA vs. Germany Prediction
Grubauer playing on consecutive days is concerning on its own. Add in his recent form, and the matchup becomes even more problematic against a United States offense that generated six goals on 45 shots against Denmark.
In his start against Latvia, Grubauer allowed four goals on 22 shots for an .818 save percentage. He also entered the Olympics in poor form, posting a .895 save percentage over his final six NHL starts before the break.
Facing a U.S. lineup in peak form, following a poor performance against Latvia, is unlikely to help matters.
Pick: United States -2.5 (-145 at theScore Bet | Play to -150)
