Cardinals vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - May 1, 2025

Cardinals at Reds

4:40 pm • FDSMW

St. Louis Cardinals

8-8

1 - 9

Cincinnati Reds

9-7

pitcher		team	era	w-l
A.Abbott			2.87	10-7
M.Liberatore			4.21	8-12

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Cardinals 8-8	N/A	N/A	N/A
Reds 9-7	N/A	N/A	N/A

Thursday 4:40 p.m.

May 01, 2025

Great American Ball ParkCincinnati

CIN -118 (Live)

A.Abbott u4.5 Ks+105

0.53u

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

A.Abbott u4.5 Ks+105

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

A.Abbott u4.5 Ks+105

1.05u

Abbott has looked strong early (6.7 K/game, 33% K rate), but he’s faced a soft schedule and draws his toughest test yet against the Cardinals. He’s struggled to consistently throw strikes — especially first-pitch strikes — and STL swings at the first pitch at the 6th-lowest rate in the league, giving them a good shot to get ahead in counts. That’s a bad setup against a disciplined lineup, especially with ump Nate Tomlinson who has been squeezing pitchers hard this year. My sim shows slight value on the under (projected -110), but the real signal comes from the S&K 500 model, where Abbott is a strong sell with a +19.4 Priority Score — good for official Club 17 access. He’s cleared this line in 2 of 3 starts, but I have him getting pulled just before he can face the softer 5-7 and 9 spots a third time. Great time to sell high.

S.Steer o0.5 HR+520

1.3u

S.Steer o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-115

0.65u

Over 4.5 (F5)-125

0.5u

L.Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases+145

0.34u

M.Liberatore u4.5 Ks-105

0.5u

A.Abbott o2.5 BB+145

0.73u

STL +105

0.5u

Over 8.5-115

0.5u

Bet to 9 (+100)

STL +110 (F5)

0.5u

STL +108

Liberatore Bot ERA over 1 run better, Pitching+ over 20 points better - CIN 90 wRC+ v LHP, STL 107 - STL better defense and bullpen

3 MLB Players Props for Thursday’s Slate
Alex Hinton•
May 1, 2025 UTC

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games.
Reds are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Reds are 5-2 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 5 of Reds' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 6 of Reds' 9 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	9-7	4-5	5-2	2-1	7-6
Cardinals	8-8	5-5	3-3	1-1	7-7

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Reds	9-6-1	6-3	3-3-1	2-1	7-5-1
Cardinals	9-6-1	6-4	3-2-1	1-1	8-5-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Reds	9-7	4-5	5-2	2-1	7-6
Cardinals	8-8	5-5	3-3	1-1	7-7

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Apr 30th	STL	L 1-9	+1.5 L	O 9.5	STL -118
Apr 30th	STL	L 0-6	-1.5 L	U 9	STL -150
Apr 28th	STL	W 3-1	+1.5 W	U 9.5	CIN -122
Apr 27th	@COL	W 8-1	-1.5 W	U 11.5	CIN -162
Apr 26th	@COL	W 6-4	-1.5 W	U 10.5	CIN -212

Nick Lodolo
SP
Lodolo is out with finger
Out
Hunter Greene
SP
Greene is out with elbow
Out

Lars Nootbaar
LF
Nootbaar is out with heel
Out
Hunter Dobbins
SP
Dobbins is out with knee
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Liberatore, P	42	3	2	2
RM.Svanson, P	44	2	2	2
RR.O'Brien, P	34	1.2	2	3
LJ.King, P	24	1.1	1	1

HITTERS	H-AB	R
1L.Nootbaar, LF	0-4	0
2M.Winn, SS	0-4	0
3B.Donovan, 2B	1-3	1
4N.Arenado, 3B	1-3	0
4N.Gorman, PH	0-1	0
5W.Contreras, 1B	0-2	0
5A.Burleson, PH	0-1	0
6L.Baker, DH	0-3	0
7J.Walker, RF	0-2	0
8Y.Pozo, C	1-3	0
9J.Barrero, CF	0-3	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LA.Abbott, P	74	4	3	1
RG.Ashcraft, P	31	3	4	0
LT.Rogers, P	12	1	1	0
RL.Mey, P	15	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1T.Friedl, CF	1-4	2	0	0
2M.McLain, 2B	1-5	0	0	1
3E.De La Cruz, SS	0-3	1	0	0
4N.Marte, 3B	2-4	2	0	1
5S.Espinal, LF	2-4	1	0	2
6S.Steer, 1B	2-3	1	1	1
7G.Lux, DH	0-3	1	0	1
8J.Trevino, C	1-3	1	1	3
9B.Dunn, RF	0-4	0	0	0