Mets vs Brewers Odds: Moneyline, Over/Under, Props - October 1, 2024

Mets at Brewers

9:32 pm • ESPN

New York Mets

2-1

8 - 4

Milwaukee Brewers

1-2

pitcher		team	era	w-l
F.Peralta			5.40	0-0
L.Severino			3.24	1-1

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Mets 2-1	+1.5	+1.5-180	o7.5-102	+124
Brewers 1-2	u7.5	-1.5+150	u7.5-119	-148

Tuesday 9:32 p.m.

October 01, 2024

American Family FieldMilwaukee

MIL -120 (Live)

1.8u

NYM -120 (Live)

NYM +124 (Live)

2.48u

Bobbyfades

Over 7.5 (Live)-105

0.95u

Bobbyfades

MIL -1.5+150

🔑 Brewers -1.5 +150 (DraftKings) 3u No more messing around. 3u 🔨 time. Mets just played a double header and immediately had to travel to Milwaukee. The wheels are starting to fall off for Sevy and Peralta is a beast. Their offense has come alive too. Big money and sharp money on the brew crew. We get it ALL back and more here

NYM +125

1.25u

#ProSystem Fade the public in playoffs Overall: 160-123-0,57% (ROI:25%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

Under 7.5-115

Read full writeup on X: https://x.com/PicksOffice Freddy Peralta's strong form (2.35 ERA last 3 starts) and dominance over the Mets (1 ER in 12 IP) combined with Milwaukee's elite bullpen (3.36 ERA) point to a low-scoring game. Severino’s struggles vs. Milwaukee (6 R in last start) are offset by their recent offensive slump. Under is 7-2-1 in last 10 matchups and 8-2 in Milwaukee’s playoff games. Expect limited runs.

M.Vientos o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs+112

1.12u

L.Severino o5.5 Ks+144

0.5u

At least 5 Ks in 10 straight, more in 5 - incentive to pitch deep w/ beat up bullpen - 4 thru 7 batters all > 25 K% v RHP

Under 7.5-115

Under 7.5-118

1.18u

Sura

G.Mitchell To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+320

0.05u

W.Adames To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+650

0.05u

W.Contreras To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+1400

0.05u

J.Ortiz To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+600

0.05u

B.Turang To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+174

0.05u

J.Chourio To Record 1+ Stolen Bases Yes+290

0.05u

Under 3.5 (F5)+110

Under 7.5-120

1.2u

Sandy

Under 7.5-120

1.2u

NYM +120

1.2u

Avery

NYM +130 (F5)

0.49u

Under 7.5-115

#ProSystem High scoring teams postseason Overall: 70-24-4,74% (ROI:43%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%)

W.Adames o1.5 Total Bases+150

0.33u

P.Alonso o1.5 Total Bases+170

0.29u

W.Adames o0.5 HR+475

0.11u

P.Alonso o0.5 HR+525

0.1u

L.Severino u5.5 Ks-145

0.5u

L.Severino u16.5 Outs-125

BetMGM

F.Lindor o1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs-120

Under 7.5-115

0.58u

Bet to -116

Over 3.5 (F5)-135

0.74u

#ProSystem Overs with wind postseason (F5) Overall: 153-85-7,64% (ROI:26%)

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The Mets are 74-21 (.779) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season -- 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

Rhys Hoskins has struck out in 29% of PA's this season -- tied for sixth highest in MLB-- sixth Percentile. Reed Garrett has a strikeout rate of 34% this season -- tied for 11th highest among qualified RPs-- 95th Percentile.

29% of Brice Turang strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- 15th highest in MLB-- 89th Percentile. 45% of Luis Severino's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season -- sixth highest among qualified SPs-- 91st Percentile.

Luis Severino has a strikeout rate of just 19% (53 SO in 277 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season -- tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% -- 17th Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 58% (596/1,019) in two strike counts this season -- 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% -- fifth Percentile.

Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 40% of the time (800/2,025) in non-two strike counts this season -- 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% -- 96th Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Brewers are 5-0 in their last 5 games.
Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Brewers are 39-42 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Brewers' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 35 of Brewers' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	84-78	45-36	39-42	63-62	20-15
Mets	72-90	34-47	38-43	35-51	37-39

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Brewers	73-85-4	35-44-2	38-41-2	55-67-3	17-17-1
Mets	77-77-8	37-38-6	40-39-2	39-42-5	38-35-3

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Brewers	2-1	55-26	48-33	83-42	19-16
Mets	74-88	36-45	38-43	44-42	30-46

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 29th	NYM	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 8	NYM +120
Sep 28th	NYM	W 6-0	+1.5 W	U 8.5	MIL -115
Sep 28th	NYM	W 8-4	+1.5 W	O 7.5	MIL -103
Sep 26th	@PIT	W 5-2	-1.5 W	U 7.5	MIL -120
Sep 25th	@PIT	L 1-2	-1.5 L	U 8	PIT -159

Akil Baddoo
LF
Baddoo is out with quad
Out
Quinn Priester
SP
Priester is out with wrist
Out

Tylor Megill
SP
Megill is out with elbow
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RL.Severino, P	105	6	3	4
RJ.Butto, P	25	2	3	0
RR.Stanek, P	14	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1F.Lindor, SS	0-4	1	0
2J.Iglesias, 2B	1-5	1	1
2J.Iglesias, 3B	1-5	1	1
3B.Nimmo, LF	1-5	1	0
4M.Vientos, 3B	2-4	2	2
4L.Acuna, 2B	0-0	0	0
5P.Alonso, 1B	0-1	1	0
6J.Winker, DH	1-2	1	2
6J.Martinez, PH	1-2	0	2
6J.Martinez, DH	1-2	0	2
7S.Marte, RF	0-2	0	1
7H.Bader, CF	0-0	0	0
8T.Taylor, CF	1-4	1	0
8T.Taylor, RF	1-4	1	0
9F.Alvarez, C	0-4	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RF.Peralta, P	68	4	5	3
RJ.Payamps, P	14	0.2	0	3
LA.Ashby, P	18	0	0	2
RN.Mears, P	12	1.1	1	0
RA.Civale, P	35	3	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1B.Turang, 2B	3-5	2	0
2J.Chourio, LF	2-4	1	1
3W.Contreras, C	1-4	0	2
4G.Mitchell, CF	0-3	0	0
5W.Adames, SS	0-3	0	0
6J.Bauers, DH	1-4	0	0
7R.Hoskins, 1B	0-3	0	1
8S.Frelick, RF	1-4	1	0
9J.Ortiz, 3B	0-4	0	0