Red Sox vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - August 16, 2023

Red Sox at Nationals

11:05 pm • MASN

Boston Red Sox

1-2

2 - 6

Washington Nationals

0-0

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Gore			4.42	7-10
J.Paxton			4.50	7-5

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Red Sox 1-2	-1.5+103	o9+100	-161
Nationals 0-0	+1.5-123	u9-120	+130

Wednesday 11:05 p.m.

August 16, 2023

Nationals ParkWashington

J.Paxton u5.5 Ks-106

1.04u

Available at FanDuel. As mentioned when discussing the Nationals' moneyline, Paxton's velocity has been down recently. In that six-start sample, he has gone over this number just twice, both of which came at home. He's now on the road and facing an opposing offense with a 19.6% strikeout rate against lefties. That means there's a path to an under even if Paxton's velo does go back up. We've got two paths to an under here, and that's enough for me to feel good laying -106.

WSH +142

1.14u

Available at FanDuel. This likely stems from a smidge of worry on my end about the health of James Paxton. It's always a talking point, but Paxton's velocity has been down his past six starts. His average fastball velo was the lowest it has been all season -- by a wide margin -- last time out. He still had great results in that game, but overall in six starts with the velo down, Paxton pairs a 4.45 ERA with a 4.20 SIERA. The opposing Nationals rarely strike out, which allows them to hold a 115 wRC+ against lefties on the current active roster. I think the Nationals put up a fight in this game, and my model has their win odds above the implied mark of 41.3%.

WSH +142

$1.42

WSH +150

0.75u

Bet to +136

MLB NRFI Model Picks For Wednesday
Billy Ward•
Aug 16, 2023 UTC

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The Nationals are 4-2 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season -- tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Rafael Devers has an OPS of .865 since last season -- 13th best in MLB-- 89th Percentile. Andres Machado has allowed an OPS of .794 (380 PAs) since last season -- ninth worst among qualified RPs-- fifth Percentile.

29% of Rafael Devers strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs since last season -- eighth highest in MLB-- 93rd Percentile. 44% of MacKenzie Gore's strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs since last season -- 13th highest among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP-- 92nd Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has a first-pitch strike rate of just 50% (57/115) over the last 30 days (5 games) -- tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% -- third Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has an ERA of 7.64 (66.0 IP) against division opponents since last season -- highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 -- 0 Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Nationals are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Nationals are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
Nationals are 45-36 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Nationals' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 40 of Nationals' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	78-84	33-48	45-36	5-15	72-69
Red Sox	87-75	43-38	44-37	53-50	34-23

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Nationals	81-73-8	40-37-4	41-36-4	8-12	72-61-8
Red Sox	76-82-4	33-45-3	43-37-1	50-50-3	26-30-1

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Nationals	66-96	32-49	34-47	7-13	58-83
Red Sox	89-73	48-33	41-40	61-42	28-29

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Aug 15th	BOS	L 4-5	+1.5 W	U 9.5	BOS +144
Aug 13th	ATH	W 8-7	-1.5 L	O 10	WSH -143
Aug 12th	ATH	W 3-2	-1.5 L	U 9.5	WSH -143
Aug 11th	ATH	W 8-2	-1.5 W	O 9	WSH -120
Aug 10th	@PHI	L 2-6	+1.5 L	U 9	PHI +210

Josiah Gray
SP
Josiah Gray (elbow) scratched Tuesday.
Out
DJ Herz
SP
Herz is out with elbow
Out

Tanner Houck
SP
Houck is out with arm
Out
Patrick Sandoval
SP
Sandoval is out with elbow
Out
Kutter Crawford
SP
Crawford is out with knee
Out
Jovani Moran
RP
Moran is out with arm
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LJ.Paxton, P	92	6	3	2
RJ.Schreiber, P	14	1	0	0
RG.Whitlock, P	25	1	1	4

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1R.Refsnyder, LF	0-4	0	0	0
1R.Refsnyder, CF	0-4	0	0	0
2J.Turner, DH	1-3	0	0	0
3R.Devers, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
4T.Story, SS	0-4	0	0	0
5A.Duvall, CF	0-2	0	0	0
5M.Yoshida, PH	0-2	0	0	0
5M.Yoshida, LF	0-2	0	0	0
6A.Verdugo, RF	1-3	1	0	0
7P.Reyes, 2B	1-3	1	1	2
8T.Casas, 1B	1-3	0	0	0
9C.Wong, C	0-2	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LM.Gore, P	85	6.1	7	0
RJ.Weems, P	11	1	0	2
LJ.Ferrer, P	10	0.2	2	0
RK.Finnegan, P	19	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Abrams, SS	0-4	0	0	0
2L.Thomas, RF	2-4	1	0	0
3J.Meneses, DH	2-3	1	0	0
4K.Ruiz, C	1-4	1	1	3
5S.Garrett, LF	2-4	2	2	2
6D.Smith, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
7I.Vargas, 3B	1-4	0	0	0
8M. Chavis, 2B	1-4	1	1	1
9A.Call, CF	0-2	0	0	0