The 96th MLB All-Star Game is upon us.
This year's rendition of the Mid-Summer Classic lacks the star power from years past, but that clears the spotlight for other talent to shine on the big stage.
Kalshi offers a multitude of ways to get in on the action tonight, but it also gives us a great look at how the markets for the 2026 All-Star Game have matured.
Let's dive in.
2026 MLB All-Star Game Picks: Who Wins?
When it comes to deciding which league will come out on top, the market has taken a clear stance.
The favored National League has not dipped much in the markets over the past few days.
As I alluded to, absences loom large in this matchup, and the National League is more significantly impacted.
However, a closer look at the guys who will take the field tonight, particularly late in the game, swings the edge back towards the National League.
According to Sean Zerillo's BARTOLO projections, the National League bench has an average wRC+ three points higher than the American League's. The offensive edge will only be amplified in the late innings as the American League may have to contend with the two most dominant arms in this game, Johan Duran and Mason Miller.
If the National League gets ahead, this game could effectively be over by the seventh with Miller and Duran looming.
Back the National League tonight.
2026 MLB All-Star Game Picks: First Inning Runs?
The first-inning run market offers plenty of value in this type of matchup.
Elite pitching often leads to lower scoring, particularly early.
Although the adage is that if you are going to score off elite starters, you have to do it early. Both Cristopher Sanchez and Dylan Cease have not been their sharpest in the first inning.
Sanchez has an astonishing 6.30 ERA in the first inning this season. His numbers show that he has been a victim of the high contact rates at the top of the opposing team's orders.
The danger Sanchez faces at the top of the American League is not just the ability to put the ball in play, but the elite power he's set to face. Mike Trout's barrel rate is the highest in the American League lineup, and he's followed by Yordan Alvarez, who's the sport's best left-on-left hitter.
If he can't get both of them out, Sanchez will have to contend with the powerful Shea Langeliers and the red-hot Junior Caminero.
With the wind blowing straight out tonight, don't be surprised if the American League gets on the board in a hurry with the long ball.
However, there's also a strong case for scoring in the bottom half of the inning. Dylan Cease has wipeout stuff, but the clear trend is that his command improves as the game goes along.
His 1.47 WHIP and 10 walks in the first inning this season are alarming, especially against a National League order that starts with Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto, two hitters who are not only extremely disciplined to take walks but also have loads of power to capitalize on any mistakes in the strike zone.
Trade: Yes, there will be a run in the first inning.
