MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Angels vs. Blue Jays
Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Reid Detmers (Angels)
Angels vs. Blue Jays Odds
-120 / +100
|Blue Jays Odds|
-120 / +100
Despite being a Cy Young contender in 2022, it's hard to back Alek Manoah after an abysmal start to his 2023 campaign.
Detmers hasn't been a very capable starter either, but he's managed to log five-plus innings in most outings. Meanwhile, Manoah can't even find the strike zone.
If Detmers can pitch a little deeper into this game, it'll relieve some of the strain on a weaker-than-average bullpen.
With that being the case, the Angels' bats can be comparable to the Blue Jays', especially with Manoah on the bump.
Detmers ranks in the 19th percentile in average exit velocity and the 24th percentile in hard-hit rate. These may not seem great (because they aren't), but both marks are better than Manoah's.
That said, Detmers has a 29.4% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate. He can miss some bats when needed. His 4.38 xERA and 4.12 ERA aren't horrid, particularly when viewing Manoah’s numbers in comparison.
The Angels have done well with the sticks. Off of righties in July, they carry a 110 wRC+, .777 OPS and 9.1% walk rate. They have six bats eclipsing a .330 xwOBA, so this encapsulates the majority of their lineup.
Also, it helps having the best player in baseball — Shohei Ohtani — in the mix. He has seven home runs off of righties this month. He can provide the boost of nearly two quality players to this lineup thanks to the power numbers he posts.
Don't be shocked if he homers off of Manoah.
In relief, the Angels have struggled. Matt Moore and Aaron Loup are the only two Los Angeles relievers under a 4.00 xFIP.
The Angels did acquire fire-baller Reynaldo López from the White Sox — alongside Lucas Giolito — so this might help with long relief. However, Detmers needs to log five strong innings — as noted above — to give the Angels a good shot at taking this game.
Manoah owns an average exit velocity in the 36th percentile with a hard-hit rate in the 21st percentile. His strikeout rate is awful at only 17.9%, with a walk rate at an astounding 14.7%.
Sure, he had a good outing against the Tigers upon returning from AAA, but in the following game, he walked five hitters against the Padres with zero strikeouts.
Against the Mariners, he walked four hitters with six strikeouts.
He hasn't seemed to change much after his AAA stint.
The Blue Jays can hit, though. They have a 148 wRC+ in 164 plate appearances off of lefties in July, with a 14% walk rate and .869 OPS. They have seven batters over a .330 xwOBA, so considering that Los Angeles has six, this may not be the typical edge Toronto is used to having.
With Detmers opposing Manoah here, the lineups are essentially a wash and the edge might tilt towards the Angels.
The Blue Jays have the better bullpen with Génesis Cabrera coming over from the Cardinals. They have three other active arms under a 4.00 xFIP.
Detmers not walking as many hitters as Manoah will be a major factor in this game and could equal out the bullpens. Even still, Toronto gets a small advantage with more lockdown options.
Angels vs. Blue Jays Betting Pick
Manoah is not backable as a bettor at the moment. One good start against a bad Detroit team doesn't say anything, especially when he quickly regressed to who he was before he went down to AAA.
Detmers can at least strike hitters out and has middle-of-the-road expected numbers.
Take the Angels with a similar lineup. As long as Detmers doesn't allow a ton of hard contact, they should have some value on the moneyline to -110.
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