The Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees on June 26, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Yankees are favored by -112 on the moneyline and by +152 on the run line. The Red Sox are -104 on the moneyline and -184 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction
- Yankees vs Red Sox Pick: Under 8.5 (-104), Payton Tolle Over 5.5 Ks (-105), Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 Runs (-115)
My Yankees vs Red Sox best bets are Under 8.5 total runs and these Payton Tolle and Wilyer Abreu props. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -112 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -104 |
- Yankees vs Red Sox moneyline: Yankees -112, Red Sox -104
- Yankees vs Red Sox over/under: 8.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Yankees vs Red Sox spread: Yankees -1.5 (+152), Red Sox (-184)
Yankees vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| Will Warren (RHP, NYY) | Stat | Payton Tolle (LHP, BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | W-L | 3-5 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.6 |
| 3.45 / 3.73 | ERA / xERA | 3.08 / 2.93 |
| 3.36 / 3.64 | FIP / xFIP | 3.32 / 4.11 |
| 17.1 | K-BB% | 16.9 |
| 44.0 | GB% | 35.6 |
| .318 | BABIP | .266 |
| 106 | Stuff+ | 114 |
| 106 | Location+ | 96 |
Yankees vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
This is a good one! Will Warren is taking on Payton Tolle, two pitchers with a lot of talent but a lot of flaws in their game. We'll explore all of that. I was immediately surprised by the moneylines. I thought the Yankees would be a bigger favorite than they are even on the road. The Yankees have a +110 run differential on the year, and the Red Sox are at -4. That's a huge difference; the Yankees are a much better team.
But it's less certain for the pinstripes when Will Warren is on the hill. He has a 3.33 ERA on the year with a 1.31 WHIP. Both of those numbers are fine, but they're getting worse. Since May 6th, his K% is down to 20.2%, and the BB% is a touch high at 9.6%. That's a poor 10.6% K-BB%, and it's turned into a 4.20 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP over this span.
Splits are very important for Will Warren. This guy has always been very good against righties and horrible against lefties. This year:
- vs. RHB: 30% K%, 7% BB%, .287 xwOBA
- vs. LHB: 20% K%, 8% BB%, .314 xwOBA
That's about how it looked last year, too. It's a pitch mix thing. He doesn't have a changeup, splitter, or a good pitch to neutralize lefties with. What I'm less sure about continuing is his home/road split:
- Home: 8 GS, 3.86 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
- Road: 7 GS, 2.73 ERA, 1.40 WHIP
He's given up eight homers this year. Seven of them are on the road, and five of them were by left-handed bats.
Let's check the Red Sox lineup with the BARTOLO tool.
So it should be a 3/6 R/L split for Warren, not really what you want for him. The good news is that none of the lefties are very frightening. Jarren Duran is about as cold as they come right now, and Gasper/Yoshida/Seigler /Mayer are all less than impressive hitters.
I think it's a good spot for Warren to avoid major damage. The projection coming out of the MLB Data Warehouse model:
> 5.2 IP, 5.1 H, 2.5 ER, 5.3 K, 1.6 BB
You can probably find some plus money on the over 2.5 earned runs for Warren. It's +110 on DraftKings. That's about a push, since that is exactly where my projection is. There's nothing begging to be bet on from my Will Warren projection.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
Before we get to the Red Sox's young left-handed starter, there is one bet in this game that grades out very well in my projection model. It's Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 Runs (+120). My projection on him is 0.71 runs, giving him a pretty good chance to cross the plate, and my model would say that price on the sports books should be about -110 or so. Slight edge there.
Payton Tolle has discovered that it's pretty tough to succeed regularly in the Major Leagues. He's now given up ten earned runs in his last three starts on 19 hits while posting a poor 11:5 K:BB. The matchups have been pretty tough. He's taken on two of the highest contact rate teams in the league in these last three (the Rays & Blue Jays).
But nonetheless, his MLB strikeout rate for the year is down to 24%. The good news is that he's throwing a ton of strikes (6.9% BB%, 30.7% Ball%), and getting whiffs (13.2% SwStr%). He's also not been hit hard (.207 xBA, .266 xwOBA). So it would seem like Tolle deserves better than the results he's encountered.
His last three starts K% is 15%, but I can't stress enough how hard it is to get K's when you're up against the Blue Jays and Rays. So this is a bounce-back spot for Tolle on the strikeout page.
For the year, Tolle has a 28% K% against righties and a 13% K% against lefties. He's faced a lefty less than a quarter of the time, so the sample size is very small there. We'd expect a much higher K% for him in those spots moving forward. But his fastball is awesome, and the sinker/cutter/curve mix behind it makes it believable that he can end up being a pretty awesome MLB pitcher someday soon.
At home, Tolle has a 31% K% with a 7% BB% and a ridiculous 16.6% SwStr%. I don't see how that makes much sense. Fenway isn't magically better for pitcher strikeouts, but maybe he just really feeds off the crowd or something – who knows.
Regardless, this is a good setup for some Tolle strikeouts. Ben Rice, Jasson Dominguez, Anthony Volpe, Jose Caballero, and Austin Wells are all projected to be in this lineup, and they all have high strikeout rates.
My projection for Tolle is 5.6 strikeouts, but I'm seeing a lot more upside than that. He took on this Yankees team in his season debut and struck out eleven in six innings. He was overthrowing a bit in that one; his fastball velocity hasn't been that high ever since (but it has built its way back up to being pretty close). So we're not taking that one matchup and saying it means a ton.
But I like Tolle a lot. I think he's a fantastic guy to "buy low" on right now. 6+ strikeouts feel awesome to me.
Yankees vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
I think both pitchers are in matchups that suit them well. Warren struggles with lefties; the Red Sox don't have many imposing left-handed bats. Tolle comes right at guys and hopes to rack up in-zone whiffs; the Yankees do a lot of in-zone whiffing, and their power is less of a problem against left-handed pitchers.
I ran my projections through the sim tool I have at MLB DW, and this game averages about 7.9-8.1 runs per game. The O/U right now is 8.5. So I'll add that to the list.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-104), Payton Tolle Over 5.5 Ks (-105), Wilyer Abreu Over 0.5 Runs (-115)
