Angels vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Offense Should Thrive if Weather Cooperates
Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
- The Yankees are favored against the struggling Angels at home tonight.
- Reid Detmers takes the mound for Los Angeles and will be opposed by New York's Nestor Cortes Jr.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Angels vs. Yankees Odds
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
On May 15, the Los Angeles Angels clinched a series victory over the Oakland Athletics to improve to 11 games above .500 and a 24-13 mark. But since then, the Angels are just 3-10 and mired in a six-game losing streak.
Much of the Angels’ problems during this skid can be attributed to their pitching. For example, they’ve posted a 5.26 ERA during this span compared to a 3.17 ERA for roughly the first six weeks.
Los Angeles will now turn to its second-year left-hander, Reid Detmers, to try to stop the bleeding. New York will counter with another lefty as Nestor Cortes will get the start.
Cortes has been in good form for the Yankees, but the Angels might be well-suited to mount a worthy challenge against him. I’ll expand on that and explain why both offenses could have a big day at the plate on Wednesday night.
Angels’ Detmers Has Struggled Since No-Hitter
It was around three weeks ago when Detmers (2-2, 4.65 ERA) turned in one of the year’s best performances with a no-hitter against the Tampa Bay Rays. And while the Angels gave him a few additional days of rest to recover, he hasn’t quite looked the same since his return.
Detmers failed to make it out of the fourth inning in his next start after allowing three hits, three runs, and two walks in 61 pitches. He followed up that performance by allowing five runs on five hits, including two home runs.
While his fastball average dropped 92.5 mph to 92.3 mph following the no-hitter, it was back up to 92.9 mph in his last start. However, it’s worth noting that it was the first time in his career that he allowed multiple home runs in back-to-back starts.
Another signal that he’s lost some sharpness is his pitching inside the zone. According to FanGraphs, in his previous two starts, opposing hitters posted a 74.1% and 74.2% swing rate. Detmers has had only one other start this season where hitters had a swing rate of 70% or higher.
One of the classic betting angles in baseball is to fade a pitcher off a no-hitter. It’s normal to expect pitchers to bounce back and find their groove at some point, but this experience is entirely new for the 22-year-old who, before his no-hitter, never threw more than 100 pitches in a major league game.
And judging by his past two performances, I’ve yet to see any sign suggesting he’s close to rediscovering the same form that led to his improbable no-hitter.
Cortes Has Been Elite For Yankees
The series opener couldn’t have gone much better against the Angels as the Yankees erupted for nine runs and got seven innings of one-run ball from their left-handed starter, Jordan Montgomery. On Wednesday, the Angels will face a second left-hander in as many days when Cortes makes his 10th start of the year.
While some might be surprised by how he’s performed this season, Cortes posted a career-best 3.78 SIERA last year, which is often a good indicator of what we could expect this season. Nonetheless, Cortes has even outperformed that projection, given his 4-1 record with a 1.70 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. His advanced metrics are also favorable, evidenced by a 2.17 xERA and a 2.56 FIP.
Although he’s not a particularly hard thrower, Cortes averaged at least 9.3 strikeouts per nine innings in the past three seasons. This year, that ratio is up to 10.36 K/9, and he’s limiting hitters to another career-best in home runs (0.68 HR/9) allowed.
Cortes turned the corner last year when he added a cutter to his pitch mix (86 mph). FanGraphs estimates the pitch is 11.7 runs above average for his career. The cutter’s been so successful that he now features it (39.4%) more than any other pitch in his arsenal. It likely compliments his fastball, which could appear even faster to hitters when thrown in the same sequence.
The combination of both pitches has undoubtedly been successful as opposing hitters have a .153 BA with a .225 wOBA against the cutter and a .167 BA and a .205 wOBA when facing his four-seamer. However, he’ll need to tread carefully against an Angels team that’s first with an 11-run above average mark when facing the cutter.
Although I waxed poetically about Cortes, the more I look into this matchup, the more I think Los Angeles can negate some of his strengths. In 13 at-bats against this current Angels lineup, they’ve hit two home runs while posting a 308 BA, .769 SLG, .350 xBA and .832 xSLG against him.
As for Detmers, I think he’s in a tough spot to be pitching in Yankee Stadium for the first time, given his current form. He’s allowed two home runs in each of his past two starts and will now have to face a Yankees lineup that ranks second with 69 home runs and first with 27 home runs against left-handers.
As a result, after considering the pitching matchups, I think the over is worth looking at in this spot. However, my one worry is that the weather could be uncooperative as we could see some rain showers and 11 mph wind gusts from right-center field.
The forecast is undoubtedly disappointing, especially considering that the total is 5-1 to the over when Detmers pitches on the road. This trend is also on a 4-0 run.
Thus, given the weather concerns, my recommendation is downgraded to a lean on the over at 7.5.
Lean: Over 7.5 (-115)
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