The San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday, July 9, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on SDPA.
Find my Diamondbacks vs Padres prediction for Wednesday night below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs Padres picks: Under 8 (-110) | Play to -120
My Diamondbacks vs Padres best bet is Under 8 (-110). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8 -105o / -115u | +120 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 8 -105o / -115u | -145 |
Diamondbacks vs Padres Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) | Stat | RHP Dylan Cease (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-6 | W-L | 3-8 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 5.42/6.47 | ERA /xERA | 4.62/3.52 |
| 4.66/3.95 | FIP / xFIP | 3.40/3.38 |
| 1.38 | WHIP | 1.33 |
| 14.2% | K-BB% | 20.3% |
| 42.2% | GB% | 36.2% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 101 | Location+ | 100 |
Kenny Ducey’s Diamondbacks vs Padres Preview
Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview: Inconsistent Pfaadt
Perhaps the most frustrating pitcher in baseball, Brandon Pfaadt has shown continued improvement across both the minor and major league levels in the past few seasons. Still, he has also taken some significant steps back time and again.
The right-hander looked to be settling into big-league action with a great close to 2023 following a couple of demotions, and while he picked right back up where he left off last season, he managed to get worse as the season went on. He did continue to make gains in the strikeout department, but it came at the expense of more walks and poor results on contact.
Well, the strikeouts and walks both went away to begin 2025, but Pfaadt opened up with an Expected Batting Average well over .300 through the first three months. He continues to be victimized by contact, but on the bright side, he's now struck out seven or more in three straight, and his expected numbers last go around against the Giants were incredibly encouraging.
What does all that mean? Well, it means we really have no idea what this 26-year-old is going to do every time he steps to the mound. He's still figuring out how to put it all together, but at least the walks have subsided, and he's also made it through two straight starts without allowing a home run. Power continues to be Pfaadt's greatest nemesis, but it seems he's trending towards preventing an influx of contact.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview: Cease's Home Run Problem
While Pfaadt may be a hard man to read, there's nothing surprising about Dylan Cease. The right-hander is going to sell out for strikeouts at the expense of walks and home runs — of which he's allowed 12 already to rank in the bottom 20 of all NL pitchers. He's now surrendered two in back-to-back outings, as his strikeout numbers have cratered a bit, which is certainly cause for concern, given that those came against the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies.
Cease did bring his xSLG to a season-best .329 in June, however, so even if his last go around was far from a clean outing, we're at least seeing the right-hander settle in with his numbers trending in the right direction with each passing month. His fly-ball rate continues to climb, however, and he's now pushing 30% for the season, which would match his 2024 mark and put him about six points higher than average.
The good news with a profile like that is that Cease pitches in San Diego, where it's incredibly difficult to convert fly balls into home runs. The veteran once again owns a friendly home-road split, pitching to a 2.76 ERA in eight starts at PETCO Park versus a 6.27 ERA on the road. He's allowed seven homers in 10 starts away from home with a 1.39 WHIP, so he'll be thankful this won't be one of those cases.
Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
While Cease has performed better in San Diego, so too have the Padres. They're sporting a .704 OPS in these games — good for a 32-point edge, but that's been anchored mainly by walks. San Diego has slugged worse at home, naturally, so against ground-ball pitchers like Pfaadt they've had a disadvantage in the splits.
We'll watch two pitchers with a tough history in allowing home runs in extra-base hits throw in front of two above-average defenses in a friendly park. For Pfaadt, there are certainly signs that eventually things will turn around.
It's not as if either side has hit particuarly well in the last two weeks, either, and while the Diamondbacks have shown they can hit for some power, both the park and their brutal 24% strikeout rate over that span should do them in against Cease.
I'd certainly lean Arizona here, but the value is on the total, which I'd set at 7.5.
Pick: Under 8 (-110)
Diamondbacks vs Padres Betting Trends
