Friday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Not Intimidated by Thor’s Hammer
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
All eyes will be on the epic Clayton Kershaw vs. Max Scherzer showdown tonight, but sharp bettors have their sights set on several other under-the-radar matchups. As always, they’re picking their spots, limiting their plays and getting down only on games that check off all the sharp boxes: percentages, line movement, bet signals, weather, officials and historical data.
After analyzing Friday’s 16-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including two games that start at 7:05 and another at 7:35 p.m. ET.
All data as of 2:30 p.m. ET
Pittsburgh Pirates – Philadelphia Phillies Under 8
7:05 p.m. ET
Public bettors see Ivan Nova (4.88 ERA) and Ben Lively (5.87 ERA) on the mound and automatically hit the “Over” button. Not the sharps. Despite 71% of bets going Over, the total has fallen from 8.5 to 8. This reverse line movement was caused by a trio of bet signals at Pinnacle, arguably the sharpest offshore sportsbook. The big dogs at Pinny steamed the Under 8.5 and came back for more on the Under 8. Two added bonuses for sharp Under bettors: the wind is blowing in, and the Under matches the profitable Bet Labs system: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams.
Toronto Blue Jays – New York Yankees Under 9
7:05 p.m. ET
Taking a Yankees Under is always scary, but sharps are fearless. More than 70% of bets are going Over, yet we’re seeing reverse line movement and a sharp line freeze across the market. At Pinnacle, the juice on Under 9 has moved from -113 to -126, indicating liability on the Under despite heavy Over betting. At Bookmaker, the total has already fallen to 8.5. Goodfellas at Buckeye and YouWager crushed the Under 9, triggering three sharp bet signals. Sharps love that Lance Barksdale is behind the plate tonight. He’s the second-best Under ump in MLB since 2005.
New York Mets at Atlanta Braves (+128)
7:35 p.m. ET
In one of the most lopsided games of the night, nearly 80% of bettors are laying the -142 on Thor and the Mets. However, sharps see a profitable buy-low opportunity on the divisional home dog. Despite getting only 24% of bets, the Braves have fallen from +135 to +128, indicating sharp reverse line movement. They’re also getting more money (42%) than bets (24%), another sharp indicator. Pro players at Pinnacle hit Atlanta +138 early, causing the market to drop the line in their favor.
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Top photo: New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard pitches against the Milwaukee Brewers