Thursday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Riding Three Dogs
Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Pro players took their lumps in April, as public favorites went an incredible 81-37 (68.6%). However, regression has been in full swing since May 1. So far this month, dogs getting less than 40% have hit at a 50% clip and produced +27.65 units. Road dogs less than 40% with reverse line movement have been even better: 22-17 (56.4%), +14.13 units. Wiseguys will look to keep the winning days rolling as they enter the final two weeks of May.
After analyzing Thursday’s 10-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:05, 7:10 and 7:35 p.m. ET.
All data as of 2:30 p.m. ET
San Diego Padres (+128) at Pittsburgh Pirates
7:05 p.m. ET
Public bettors are biased toward favorites and home teams. They also overvalue won-loss records and starting pitchers. The Padres are 17-27, on the road and send a pitcher with an ERA of 8.27 to the mound (Eric Lauer). Meanwhile, the Pirates are 25-17, at home and have Chad Kuhl toeing the rubber (4-2, 4.17 ERA).
The Pirates are getting 78% of bets but only 52% of dollars, indicating predominantly Average Joe wagers backing them. Meanwhile, the Buccos have fallen from -167 to -139 despite getting nearly 80% of bets. Why would the books drop the Pittsburgh line to hand out an easier number to public players?
Baltimore Orioles (+146) at Boston Red Sox
7:10 p.m. ET
The 29-14 Red Sox can't possibly lose to the 13-29 Orioles, especially at home with David Price on the mound, right? Despite receiving 73% of bets, Boston has fallen from -168 to -163, indicating sharp reverse line movement on Baltimore. The Orioles are a road divisional dog with a high total (9.5), a profitable spot since 2005. They also fit the lucrative Betting Against the Public Bet Labs system (+169.93 units, 10.9% ROI since 2005).
Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves (+101)
7:35 p.m. ET
The Braves have been a godsend to bettors this season. They're 26-16 and a $100 bettor taking them every game would have profited $1,372. Nevertheless, the public sees the Cubs at a short price with Jon Lester on the mound and can't resist.
The Braves are getting only 32% bets, but the line is moving bigtime in their direction (+117 to +101).
3:10 p.m. ET Update: The Braves have switched starting pitchers. Max Fried is now on the mound, not Mike Soroka. Atlanta has moved from +101 to +115. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out the Action Network MLB betting trends page.
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