Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Pro players took their lumps in April, as public favorites went an incredible 81-37 (68.6%). However, regression has been in full swing since May 1. So far this month, dogs getting less than 40% have hit at a 50% clip and produced +27.65 units. Road dogs less than 40% with reverse line movement have been even better: 22-17 (56.4%), +14.13 units. Wiseguys will look to keep the winning days rolling as they enter the final two weeks of May.
After analyzing Thursday’s 10-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:05, 7:10 and 7:35 p.m. ET.
All data as of 2:30 p.m. ET
San Diego Padres (+128) at Pittsburgh Pirates
7:05 p.m. ET
Public bettors are biased toward favorites and home teams. They also overvalue won-loss records and starting pitchers. The Padres are 17-27, on the road and send a pitcher with an ERA of 8.27 to the mound (Eric Lauer). Meanwhile, the Pirates are 25-17, at home and have Chad Kuhl toeing the rubber (4-2, 4.17 ERA).
The Pirates are getting 78% of bets but only 52% of dollars, indicating predominantly Average Joe wagers backing them. Meanwhile, the Buccos have fallen from -167 to -139 despite getting nearly 80% of bets. Why would the books drop the Pittsburgh line to hand out an easier number to public players?