Thursday Sharp Report: Wiseguys Riding Three Dogs

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Atlanta Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman (5) Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Pro players took their lumps in April, as public favorites went an incredible 81-37 (68.6%). However, regression has been in full swing since May 1. So far this month, dogs getting less than 40% have hit at a 50% clip and produced +27.65 units. Road dogs less than 40% with reverse line movement have been even better: 22-17 (56.4%), +14.13 units. Wiseguys will look to keep the winning days rolling as they enter the final two weeks of May.

 

After analyzing Thursday’s 10-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professional players are focusing on, including games that start at 7:05, 7:10 and 7:35 p.m. ET.

All data as of 2:30 p.m. ET

San Diego Padres (+128) at Pittsburgh Pirates

7:05 p.m. ET

Public bettors are biased toward favorites and home teams. They also overvalue won-loss records and starting pitchers. The Padres are 17-27, on the road and send a pitcher with an ERA of 8.27 to the mound (Eric Lauer). Meanwhile, the Pirates are 25-17, at home and have Chad Kuhl toeing the rubber (4-2, 4.17 ERA).

The Pirates are getting 78% of bets but only 52% of dollars, indicating predominantly Average Joe wagers backing them. Meanwhile, the Buccos have fallen from -167 to -139 despite getting nearly 80% of bets. Why would the books drop the Pittsburgh line to hand out an easier number to public players?

Baltimore Orioles (+146) at Boston Red Sox 

7:10 p.m. ET

The 29-14 Red Sox can’t possibly lose to the 13-29 Orioles, especially at home with David Price on the mound, right? Despite receiving 73% of bets, Boston has fallen from -168 to -163, indicating sharp reverse line movement on Baltimore. The Orioles are a road divisional dog with a high total (9.5), a profitable spot since 2005. They also fit the lucrative Betting Against the Public Bet Labs system (+169.93 units, 10.9% ROI since 2005).

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves (+101)

7:35 p.m. ET

The Braves have been a godsend to bettors this season. They’re 26-16 and a $100 bettor taking them every game would have profited $1,372. Nevertheless, the public sees the Cubs at a short price with Jon Lester on the mound and can’t resist.

The Braves are getting only 32% bets, but the line is moving bigtime in their direction (+117 to +101).

3:10 p.m. ET Update: The Braves have switched starting pitchers. Max Fried is now on the mound, not Mike Soroka. Atlanta has moved from +101 to +115. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out the Action Network MLB betting trends page

Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.

The Pro membership also gives you a fully customizable live odds page with lines from 50+ books, the number of bets on every game, best bet picks, steam and reverse line moves, Sharp Action Report, weather, injuries, line watcher, line predictor and more.

For more betting info and customer support, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights

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