Monday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Gausman and Carrasco Bring It in Baltimore?

Monday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Gausman and Carrasco Bring It in Baltimore? article feature image

Tough defeat last night to cap off the weekend, as it seemed as if there were at least a few blown opportunities in the second half. Unfortunately, we dropped the over by a run, but that can happen, of course. Let’s just focus on starting the new week off right.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 15-5-2, +9.6 units

Yesterday’s Result: Hellickson vs. Wood Over 8 (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Cleveland Indians @ Baltimore Orioles
7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco (3-0, 2.60 ERA) vs. Kevin Gausman (1-1, 5.57 ERA)

Nobody in baseball has a lower team batting average than the Orioles (.215) or Indians (.219), and that’s one thing we’ll be relying on when these two teams hook up once more Monday night to complete a four-game set.

For Baltimore, it’s been a real rough go as of late, having dropped 10 of their past 12 entering tonight’s series finale. While their woeful starting pitching is just as much to blame as anything, the offense (with the exception of Manny Machado and the sidelined Trey Mancini) deserves to shoulder the same responsibility for the club’s struggles, especially during this current stretch in which the O’s have plated more than three runs in only three of those games.

Tonight, it certainly won’t get any easier when they face Carrasco at Camden Yards, which is good news for the man they call “Cookie.” Carrasco has sported some of the most extreme home-and-road splits you can have as a pitcher, producing much better results away from Cleveland. In fact, since the Indians installed him as a full-time starter again for the 2015 season, Carrasco has registered an incandescent 2.57 ERA in 46 road starts, which shines even more when put up against the 4.27 ERA he’s churned out in 45 home assignments.

Also working in the 31-year-old’s favor tonight is that he’s a strikeout artist. The O’s have whiffed an AL-leading 226 times, so simply putting the ball in play with Carrasco on the mound could prove to be challenging. As it is, they’re already slumping, which isn’t very surprising, considering dead bats such as those of Chance Sisco and Anthony Santander remain in their order.

The Al Central-leading Indians, meanwhile, have not had a hard time winning ballgames, but that has more to do with their great pitching. However, their lineup has been another story. Eventually they should get it going based on the high level of talent they boast on offense, but it may be difficult for that to happen in this one with Kevin Gausman on the hill.

The six-year veteran is coming off one of his better efforts, when he limited the Tigers to two runs in six fine innings. It also went down as his second consecutive quality start, and perhaps most notably, he didn’t walk anyone.

This could be a sign of things to come, as Gausman actually just made an adjustment to his delivery before his last outing, one he feels can get him back on track closer to the form he displayed in his career-best 2016 season. Based on the early results, Gausman might be right, and with his talented right arm, he’s worth trusting in this spot.

He also holds solid career numbers opposite the Tribe, posting a 2.53 ERA to go with 21 strikeouts in 21.1 innings. Furthermore, he’s had success against a couple of Cleveland’s key core contributors, with Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Ramirez being a career 3-for-27 (.111) off Gausman.

Grab this under wager at 8 as soon as you can, as I don’t see it having much potential to get to 8.5.

Play: UNDER 8 (-110)