The Seattle Mariners (0-0) host the Cleveland Guardians (0-0) for MLB Opening Day on Thursday, March 26. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 10:10 PM, and the game can be streamed on MLB.TV.
I've got a player prop for a starting pitcher, who I project to stay Under his strikeout prop line over 60% of the time.
Read on for my MLB Props and MLB predictions for Mariners-Guardians on Opening Day.
MLB Props, Predictions for Mariners vs Guardians on Opening Day
Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Strikeouts
I'm 3-0 on strikeout props for MLB Opening Day, so here's to hoping I hit a fourth straight!
Logan Gilbert is a certified ace with plenty of strikeout upside. His splitter is one of the best putaway pitches in the league (50% whiff rate). Plus, his home park, T-Mobile, is one of the best ballparks for strikeouts in MLB.
That said, a few things are working against him on MLB Opening Day.
First, the pitch count.
Gilbert has a standard drop-off in strikeout rate the second time through the order, but it actually jumps back up the third time through the order. That's uncommon, but it speaks to the effectiveness of his pitch mix.
But with a limited pitch count, he's less likely to get deep enough into the game ot face the lineup a third time. I project him to get pulled right around Bo Naylor's third plate appearance.
That's also important, as Cleveland's top four hitters project for just an 18.3% strikeout rate against Gilbert the third time through the order, while the bottom five project for a 30.3% rate. That's the chunk of the lineup that is most likely to swing and miss, and his shorter leash quietly drags down his overall strikeout expectation.
Additionally, the Guardians' lineup projects to have the highest chase contact rate of any MLB team on Opening Day. They also have a whiff rate around 3% below league average against fastballs. They should do a good job of avoiding two-strike counts.
I project Gilbert to stay Under 6.5 strikeouts around 62% of the time.
Pick: Logan Gilbert Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-160 or Better)
