Astros vs. Mets MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Alvarez and Houston Should Have Success Against New York (Tuesday, June 28)

Astros vs. Mets MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Alvarez and Houston Should Have Success Against New York (Tuesday, June 28) article feature image

Via Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez.

  • The Mets host the Astros at Citi Field in what should be an intriguing matchup.
  • The Mets send Carlos Carrasco to the mound while the Astros counter with Framber Valdez.
  • Mike Ianniello breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Astros vs. Mets Odds

Astros Odds-124
Mets Odds+106
Time7:10 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We are in the final week of June, and the New York Mets have the best record in the National League. What a world. On top of that, they have done this largely without Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer.

New York is 47-27 and is five games up on the Braves in the divisional standings. Houston isn’t far behind, sitting at the familiar place near the top of the American League. At 45-27, the Astros have the second-best record in the AL.

Houston did manage to sweep a brief two-game series against the Mets a week ago, but this pair of games will take place in Queens, where New York has the second-fewest home losses.

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Valdez Leads the Astros into Citi Field

Houston will send left-hander Framber Valdez to the mound on Tuesday, and he is having another stellar season. Valdez ranks among the top 20 in the league with a 2.90 ERA this year.

Like any good sinker-ball thrower, Valdez excels at limiting hard contact. His Barrel Rate is in the top 7% of the league, and he has surrendered just five home runs all season.

Both of these offenses rank near the top of the league with Houston sitting third in wRC+. The Astors have been especially good against right-handed pitchers, like the one they’ll face Tuesday.

Yordan Alvarez is having an MVP caliber season. He is second in the league with 22 home runs, and his 198 wRC+ is the best in baseball. He has absolutely mashed right-handed pitching this season, leading the league by a wide margin with a ridiculous 233 wRC+.

Can the Mets' Bats Stay Hot Against a Lefty?

In his first season with New York, Carlos Carrasco (RHP) dealt with injuries and then really struggled to a 1-5 record with a 6.04 ERA. This season he has really improved and holds an 8-3 record.

His ERA has improved down to 4.42, and it could be even better as he’s gotten a bit of bad luck based on his 3.89 xERA. Lowering his Walk Rate has played a significant role in his improvement. His best pitch has been his changeup, allowing just a .221 batting average with a .258 wOBA.

New York’s offense sits just below Houston's, ranking fourth in wRC+, and the two teams are tied in wOBA. Just like the Astros, the Mets are much better against right-handers, so they will have a tougher matchup on Tuesday against a Southpaw.

The Mets have an MVP candidate of their own as Pete Alonso currently has the second-best odds in the NL to win the award. His 22 home runs are tied for second in the league, and he leads all players with 69 (nice) RBIs. Alonso also mashes right-handed pitching.

Astros-Mets Pick

Despite Carrasco experiencing some bad luck this year, Valdez is still the much better pitcher, with a 3.11 xERA. Valdez has also been nails on the road this year, going 4-1 with a 1.95 ERA in away games.

Behind these starters, Houston has the better bullpen, ranking first in the league in reliever ERA. Both teams have star power at the top of their lineups, but the Astros are deeper top to bottom. Houston has six players with a wRC+ over 125, while the Mets just have three.

I’ll take Houston on the moneyline at -116 and would play them to -130 or better.

Bonus Pick: Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 total bases. Alvarez absolutely mashes right-handed pitching, holding the best wRC+ by a wide margin. When they faced Carrasco last week, Alvarez went 2/2 with two home runs.

Pick: Houston Astros Moneyline -116

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