Astros vs Yankees ALCS Game 3 Odds, Pick, Prediction

Astros vs Yankees ALCS Game 3 Odds, Pick, Prediction article feature image

Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Astros pitcher Cristian Javier

  • The Yankees are favored over the Astros in Game 3 of the ALCS tonight.
  • New York has its ace, Gerrit Cole, on the mound hope to avoid an 0-3 hole in the series. Houston is going with Cristian Javier.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of how we're betting tonight's big matchup in the Bronx.

Astros vs. Yankees Game 3 Odds

Astros Odds+120
Yankees Odds-145
Over/Under7 (+100/-120)
Time5:07 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Astros took care of business in Houston and will look to take a commanding 3-0 lead as the ALCS shifts to New York.

New York's potent offense was silenced over the first two games of this series, but perhaps a return to Yankee Stadium will be just what the team needs.

So, what's the best way to bet this crucial Game 3? D.J. James has looked it over and his best bets are below.

MLB Odds & Picks

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Astros Moneyline (+130)
Under 7 (-115)

Astros Moneyline (+130)

Odds via Caesars

D.J. James: Cristian Javier will get his chance to start against the New York Yankees and Gerrit Cole in Game 3. Javier has only had one appearance this postseason, and he looked a tad shaky in relief. However, he has been great all year and that sample size of one outing in an unfamiliar situation is nothing to extrapolate from.

Cole is great. He has thrown at least six innings in both playoff appearances and only yielded two runs in one of those.

That said, the Astros had four hitters with a xwOBA over .320 against righties from August 1 until the end of the regular season. The Yankees had one, Aaron Judge, and he is currently sporting a .207 OBP with 12 strikeouts in 28 at-bats this postseason. Javier ranks in the 94th percentile in strikeout percentage, so this is not a good matchup for the Yankees’ best hitter.

Finally, the Houston bullpen has not allowed a run, outside of Javier in relief and Rafael Montero. They have been nearly flawless.

With their best pitcher on the bump in Game 3, the Astros should force the Yankees to the brink of a sweep. Take the Astros at +130, and play to -105. Cole and the Yankees are overvalued in this game.

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Under 7 (-115)

Odds via FanDuel

D.J. James: Cristian Javier finally gets the nod to start against the New York Yankees in Game 3 with his Houston Astros looking to take a 3-0 lead. He will face Gerrit Cole in a critical game for the Yankees.

Javier is an incredibly underrated pitcher and arguably the best pitcher in an Astros' rotation that includes Justin Verlander.

Additionally, the Houston bullpen has been outstanding since August 1, so it is going to be incredibly hard for the Yankees to score.

That said, the Astros have to face the ace of the Yankees' staff in Cole, who has put up two phenomenal performances in the postseason. Houston will certainly have its hands full with Cole and likely the back-end of the Yankees' bullpen.

With two great starters who can pitch deep into the game, the under is the play.

Javier was phenomenal all season. He held a 2.54 ERA and even better 2.43 xERA while striking out 33.2% of hitters. He sometimes has issues with walks, but his strikeout rate puts him in the 94th percentile of MLB.

The Yankees had the sixth-worst strikeout rate in baseball at nearly 25% against righties since August 1 in the regular season. Pair that with the fact that Aaron Judge — who is struggling in the postseason — is the only active player on the ALCS roster with a .320+ xwOBA and it is a horrible matchup for the Yankees' offense.

Cole is no slouch, either. He does have the propensity to get frazzled at times, but he has not shown it this postseason.

In the regular season, he allowed some hard contact (29th percentile in hard-hit rate, 25th percentile in average exit velocity), but also ranked in the 92nd percentile in strikeout rate and the 75th percentile in walk rate.

The Astros also only had three batters above a .320 xwOBA, and one of them, José Altuve is 0-for-23 in the playoffs. The Astros don't strike out much as a team, but that won't be enough against Cole at his peak.

It's hard to envision many runs being scored against Javier or Cole, unless some Astros bust out of a slump or Javier walks too many hitters. The pitching has been solid in the series and should be even better in this pairing.

Take the under at 7 (-115), and play to 6.5 (-130).

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