MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/7: Fade Dodgers on Sunday Night Baseball?
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 7 slate of baseball games with his model below, including Marlins-Braves and Yankees-Orioles.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
I’ve been actively encouraging you to “Fade the Cubs” in this space all season. Meanwhile, we’ve quietly bet against the Boston Red Sox for five of the past six days and won each and every wager, as Boston is now 2-8.
Last night, the Diamondbacks quickly rallied from three runs down in the second inning against Boston and got themselves into a coin-flip game. In a fitting end to a game started by Luke Weaver (the other return piece in the Paul Goldschmidt trade), catcher Carson Kelly, delivered the walk-off hit:
WALK-OFF TACOS!!!! CARSON KELLY!!!! pic.twitter.com/On6uo9u1nP
— FOX Sports Arizona (@FOXSPORTSAZ) April 7, 2019
Kelly was terrific behind the plate in this matchup too. He routinely blocked potential passed balls in the dirt with runners in scoring position that many other catchers would have let get past them, potentially allowing runners to score without a ball in play.
In Atlanta, Jorge Alfaro delivered the go-ahead blast off Braves shutdown reliever A.J. Minter in the ninth inning:
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) April 7, 2019
Miami has good starting pitching and has been competitive and entertaining in every game thus far. It will go for the series win today, with its best pitcher (Caleb Smith) on the bump, and you can bet that we’ll be on the Marlins to take this road series.
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 3-2 yesterday, with the Diamondbacks, Giants and Marlins winning, and the Brewers and Orioles taking losses.
The Orioles actually held a two-run lead in the top of the eighth inning, before Luke Voit put the Yankees ahead for good with an opposite field, three-run home run.
In terms of Closing Line Value (CLV), I was on the right side of the Brewers game, beating the close by .21 cents (-109 vs. -130). I also beat the Diamondbacks close by 6 cents (+129 vs. +123), and the Orioles by a penny, while playing the Marlins line 3 cents too soon (+155 vs. +158)
For good teams like the Brewers, I try to play the line as soon as I can before it moves, as you can typically expect for these teams to generate public support.
However, I’m still learning how to time the market for the teams that nobody wants to bet on, such as Baltimore and Miami. I seem to play their lines after they move up from the open, but generally a few cents shy of their peak price.
On Deck for Sunday 4/7
All odds as of early Sunday morning.
The model recommends three full-game moneylines for Friday:
The 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Marlins, Mets and Orioles as plays. I also grabbed the Colorado Rockies in the Sunday Night Baseball game (it’s first time in Denver since 2001), as they look to avoid getting swept by the Dodgers.
The two pitchers who I want you to keep an eye on today are Zack Wheeler of the Mets and Caleb Smith of the Marlins.
Wheeler was dominant during the second half of the 2018 season, holding a 1.68 ERA over 11 starts, with a 73:15 K:BB ratio over 75 innings pitched.
In his second season off injury, Wheler’s velocity ticked up, and he also introduced a devastating splitter to his arsenal. The incredible movement on the pitch caused hitters to swing at Wheeler’s splitters outside of the zone more than 50% of the time:
Zack Wheeler, Filthy Splitter (Grip/Release/slow). 🤢 pic.twitter.com/OqBYYFmHHQ
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 29, 2018
The public is all over the Nationals today with Max Scherzer on the hill, grabbing 71% of moneyline tickets, butmore than 40% of the moneyline cash is backing the Mets.
A similar ticket split situation has emerged in Atlanta, with more than 70% of the moneyline tickets on the Braves, with just 42% of the moneyline cash.
I much prefer Marlins starter Caleb Smith to Braves starter Sean Newcomb in this matchup. Newcomb walked nearly one batter for every two innings pitched last season, and his velocity is currently down more than three mph from the end of 2018.
Meanwhile, Carson Smith continued to be the crafty lefty who simply generates whiffs and weak contact, in his first outing against the Mets.
Caleb Smith has me excited …again:
22 swinging strikes
35.6% CSW rate
10 Swinging strikes on his FB alone pic.twitter.com/I4OLBQIm6j
— Alex Fast (@AlexFast8) April 2, 2019
Over 16 starts last season, Smith struck out over 10 batters per nine innings, while generating a ton of weak contact in the air (50.8% flyballs, 18% infield flies).
He is a pure fastball-changeup-slider pitcher, but he might currently be the best (and most consistent) arm on this Marlins staff. I’ll gladly back what I consider to be the better arm, who is taking more moneyline cash in this matchup.
Bets (So Far) for April 7
Thus far, I have locked in:
- Baltimore Orioles (+174)
- Colorado Rockies (+135)
- Miami Marlins (+146)
- New York Mets (+125)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/7: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.