Blue Jays vs Orioles MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: How to Bet the Over/Under in Toronto (Wednesday, September 7)
Justin Berl/Getty Images. Pictured: George Springer #4 of the Toronto Blue Jays.
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Odds
|Blue Jays Odds||-145|
|Over/Under||7.5 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Can we learn anything from the previous three games to profit here? Let’s take a look at this matchup below.
Can Toronto’s Offense Stay Hot?
First and foremost, the Blue Jays are red hot at the plate. They own the third-best wRC+ in baseball over the last week of play and have scored 21 runs in the first three games of this series. Their strikeout rate is an excellent 18.1%, and their ISO a solid .187 during this time.
Speaking of offense, Alek Manoah has certainly allowed a lot of it to the Baltimore Orioles. In his last two starts against Baltimore, he’s yielded seven earned runs over 10 2/3 innings. With the runs have come 12 hits, five walks and two home runs. That’s ugly.
Walks really hadn’t been an issue for Manoah until August, when he issued 13 free passes in 29 2/3 innings. He walked four on multiple occasions. The Orioles aren’t a team which will strike out a lot, coming in around 21%, meaning they’re disciplined and walks could become a factor.
Orioles Hitters Have Favorable Matchup
The Orioles were initially expected to start Dean Kremer here prior to scratching him and replacing him with Tyler Wells. The handicap doesn’t really change much, though.
Wells has been slightly better, pitching to a 3.90 ERA and a 3.81 xERA, but he’s well above average in the fly ball department. He’s allowed them at nearly a 7% higher clip than league average, which doesn’t bode well against a team which is fifth in home run-to-fly ball ratio.
The Orioles, thankfully, rank ninth in wRC+ over the last week. During that time, they’re flexing a .207 ISO, which will be a fascinating matchup with Manoah, who has been excellent at limiting hard-hit balls and barrels. With that said, Baltimore is eighth against fastballs in pitch value.
Blue Jays-Orioles Pick
The over has cashed in the last three games between these two teams, mainly thanks to the Blue Jays. While there’s a slightly stronger pitcher on the hill for Baltimore, he’s still one which should allow fly balls at a dangerous rate against a team which can hit so many home runs.
Both of these offenses are red hot, and I’m more than happy to take a bite of a low total considering Manoah’s history here against the Orioles.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-110)