The Minnesota Twins host the Boston Red Sox on April 14, 2026. First pitch from Target Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NESN+.
The Red Sox are favored by -134 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Twins are +114 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Twins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction
- Red Sox vs Twins Pick: Red Sox ML
Red Sox vs Twins Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 8 -110o / -110u | -134 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 8 -110o / -110u | +114 |
Red Sox vs Twins Projected Starting Pitchers
| Sonny Gray (RHP) | Stat | Mick Abel (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 2.76 / 4.21 | ERA / xERA | 6.08 / 7.17 |
| 3.31 / 3.84 | FIP / xFIP | 3.94 / 5.87 |
| 0.98 | WHIP | 2.10 |
| 10.6% | K-BB% | 4.5% |
| 56.6% | GB% | 24.4% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 112 |
| 100 | Location+ | 102 |
Red Sox vs Twins MLB Betting Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
This system in MLB identifies regular-season conference matchups where a favorite is poised for a bounce-back performance.
The team is coming off a recent loss in the head-to-head series by a modest margin (-16 to -1), but market confidence remains firm, with the closing moneyline set between -166 and -127 and public support falling within a moderate 25% to 69.5% range.
The team is also on a short road/home losing streak (between -5 and -1 games), indicating a temporary dip rather than a collapse.
The theory is that motivated favorites in familiar conference settings — especially those with recent head-to-head losses and limited momentum — are undervalued by the market in return spots.
This strategy exploits those mispriced opportunities by trusting the favorite’s underlying edge despite short-term setbacks.
Red Sox vs Twins Picks
If there were ever a spot for a bounce-back performance, this is it.
The Red Sox were thrashed yesterday behind an all-time blow-up from Garrett Crochet (1.2 IP, 9 H, 10 ER, 2 HR, 3 BB, 0 K).
The Twins have been red-hot, but in the long run, the Red Sox project better on the offensive and defensive ends. Willson Contreras has made a big difference with his defense at first base and his bat in the middle of the lineup.
Following a tough 2026 debut, Sonny Gray has locked in over the past two starts, tossing 12 ⅓ innings of two-run ball.
Meanwhile, Mick Abel is running pathetic earned run indicators (7.17 xERA, 5.87 xFIP) behind a lackluster batted-ball profile (26% ground-ball rate, 7% barrel rate).
Hopefully, the Red Sox bounce back after Monday’s disgusting outing.
Pick: Red Sox ML
