The New York Mets host the Boston Red Sox on July 11, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.
The Mets are favored by -152 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are +128 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Mets Prediction
- Red Sox vs Mets Pick: Mets ML (play to -160)
My Red Sox vs Mets best bet is on New York to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Mets Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -176 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +128 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -152 |
- Red Sox vs Mets moneyline: Red Sox +128, Mets -152
- Red Sox vs Mets over/under: 8.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Red Sox vs Mets spread: Red Sox +1.5 (-176), Mets -1.5 (+146)
Red Sox vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| LHP Eduardo Rivera (BOS) | Stat | RHP Freddy Peralta (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 5-7 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 0.00/1.46 | ERA / xERA | 4.68/3.78 |
| 1.31/2.23 | FIP / xFIP | 4.29/4.20 |
| 30.0% | K-BB% | 13.3% |
| 71.4% | GB% | 42.0% |
| .143 | BABIP | .308 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 113 | Location+ | 104 |
Red Sox vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Red Sox come into this series against the Mets on fire, registering wins in seven straight ballgames.
The Red Sox's winning streak could be in real danger with left-hander Eduardo Rivera making his first big league start. With All-Star Ranger Suarez hitting the injured list, it forced Boston to choose between Brayan Bello or Rivera for this outing and Rivera earned the nod.
Rivera pitched in one big league game this year, tossing 3 1/3 scoreless innings out of the bullpen against the Yankees. In Triple-A, Rivera boasts a strong 2.44 ERA, but his severe walk issues boost his xERA to a 5.21 and FIP to 3.66. A pitcher with Rivera's pure stuff can get away with control issues in the minors, but it's a different story in the big leagues.
Largely, I think this will be more of a bullpen game for the Red Sox, made possible by Sonny Gray's quality start on Friday. Looking at Rivera's game logs, he last pitched more than 2 1/3 innings in May. I imagine his leash will be fairly short and he probably won't pitch more than three — maybe four innings if he pitches efficiently.
To their credit, Boston's bullpen has performed well, posting the fourth best ERA in MLB since June. It'll be tough to cover six or seven innings, but this pen has the weapons to make it work.
From an offensive standpoint, injuries have ravaged this Red Sox lineup. It all starts with Roman Anthony, the former top prospect in baseball, who last played on May 4th, and the oft-injured Trevor Story, who hasn't suited up since May 14th.
So, it shouldn't be a shocker that Boston doesn't have a world-beating offense. Still, the Red Sox rank 17th in MLB with a 98 wRC+ over their past 19 games, but just 22nd with 19 home runs.
It's largely been a one-man show with Willson Contreras having a career year. Don't sleep on the tandem of Caleb Durbin and Anthony Seigler, who each own a wRC+ better than 120 over their past 20 games.
New York Mets Betting Preview
To call Freddy Peralta's tenure in Queens a disaster would be an understatement. Instead of being the "ace" of the staff, Peralta has a 4.68 ERA, but his 3.78 xERA and 4.29 FIP indicate that he should get on track soon.
Since becoming a full-time starter in 2021, Peralta has posted a 9.92 K/9 or better in five straight seasons… until this year, when his K/9 is 8.82. Nothing about Peralta's attack is different. He throws fastballs over 50% of the time, with his velocity sitting in the 94 mph range. Peralta's whiff rate plummeted, and in turn, his strikeout rate tumbled.
I feel good about getting on the right side of Peralta's regression here. The stuff is still there, so I imagine the sequencing and location will return to form, and his elite strikeout form will return.
Offensively, the Mets can pick up Peralta if he struggles. They rank 10th in MLB with a 110 wRC+ since June 20th — and have the second most homers in the league with 31. Plus, their patient plate approach gives them a 9.9 BB%, good for fourth best in MLB.
The star power of Juan Soto has lifted New York during this stretch, as he leads the team with a 185 wRC+ and a jaw-dropping 26% walk rate.
The other "stars," Bo Bichette and Francisco Lindor, haven't hit all year, but rookie outfielders Carson Benge and AJ Ewing each boast a wRC+ above 130 with a sub-20 % strikeout rate and 4+ homers. Just imagine what happens to this Mets offense if Lindor and Bichette start hitting as they should.
Red Sox vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
I want to be on the right side of Peralta's regression. The underlying numbers indicate things will trend right soon and with his recent uptick in velocity, this could be the game that turns the tide.
The Mets should have a solid attack against Rivera, who can spray the ball around. With their patient approach, Rivera will have to throw competitive enough pitches to bait New York into swinging.
Pick: Mets ML (play to -160)
