Braves vs. Mets Game 2 Odds, Picks, Predictions: How To Bet Kyle Wright vs. Carlos Carrasco (May 3)
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Wright
Braves vs. Mets Odds
|Time||Approx 6:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Braves and Mets will complete their doubleheader Tuesday evening with Kyle Wright facing Carlos Carrasco.
Let’s give in and see where we can find betting value.
Braves’ Wright Has Reached Another Level
Kyle Wright has offered a massive boost the Braves so far in this 2022 campaign, with a 3-0 record and a 1.13 ERA in 24 innings. Wright’s xERA of 1.97 is in the top 9% of pitchers league wide, and he has managed a ridiculous 37% K-rate.
Wright features a plus changeup and cutter, and has sequenced both very effectively to start the campaign. He has thrown his breaking stuff for a strike 72% of the time this season.
Batters haven’t found much hard contact at all off of Wright, with the opposition managing just a .259 xSLG, and by all accounts it seems Wright has found some very well earned success to start this campaign.
His club has not batted as effectively as we might expect, but still has managed some solid numbers at the plate so far. Atlanta owns the 16th-best wRC+ at 104 so far this season, and it also has a .316 wOBA. The Braves have the eighth-best hard-hit rate of 41.1% and second-best barrel rate of 11.1%.
Atlanta holds similar results against rigt-han ders, with a 100 wRC+ and a .311 wOBA. The Braves did finish 11th and eighth, respectively, in those two categories vs. right-handers last season, and will be a formidable challenge for Carrasco .
Ronald Acuna Jr. sat game one of this doubleheader, and will play in game two. He should offer a notable boost to Atlanta’s offensive production moving forward.
What Will Mets Get Out Of Carrasco?
After some confusion regarding who would start each game of this doubleheader from the Mets, we now know for certain Carrasco gets game two.
In a head-to-head matchup vs Wright, this should set up to be a tough spot for the Mets, as I believe we will see Carrasco begin to post lesser results moving forward.
The 35-year-old veteran seems to be falling into some natural regression and has pitched to a below-average 4.29 QOPA this season. He features below-average fastball velocity and spin rates, and I think that the better lineups will be able to figure out the sequencing and find some strong contact.
He’s a clever pitcher and has made it work, playing to just a 2.68 xERA so far. But it seems fairly natural to expect regression toward his xERA of 4.69 last season given that his stuff has not looked much different. We saw St. Louis hit him around badly last time out, and my belief is that he posts below average numbers moving forward this season.
The Mets may provide him far more offensive support than we saw a season ago with what we have seen so far, including second-best marks in wRC+ (128) and wOBA (.340) vs right-handed pitching so far.
We saw New York crush Charlie Morton to start game one of this doubleheader, but the Mets are running hot with regards to BABIP, and do hold a second lowest 33.7 hard-hit rate % and a middling xBA of .252.
The Mets get a much tougher matchup here vs Wright, and it’s quite possible we see this order looking less potent in game-two.
Wright’s spectacular early results seem to be coming behind what has truly been excellent pitching, and notable regression does not appear on the horizon for the time being.
Therefore the Braves are holding a significant starting pitching advantage for this second game, with my belief that Carrasco will continue to post middling results moving forward.
Atlanta’s offense has not been as dominant as we would expect to start this season, but we should expect the Braves to find better results moving forward. With Acuna resting game 1, he will be good to go and will be a big addition for this one in a matchup where he could do damage.
I certainly see some value here looking for Wright to continue his strong play and leave in line for another win. Getting an even number for Atlanta to win the first 5 innings looks great to me in this spot, and I would play that down to -120.
Pick: Atlanta Braves First 5 Innings -110 (Play to -120)
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