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Braves vs. Nationals Odds & Picks: Expect Atlanta to Dominate

Braves vs. Nationals Odds & Picks: Expect Atlanta to Dominate article feature image
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Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Kyle Wright.

  • The struggling Nationals host the Braves on Thursday in MLB action.
  • Atlanta is heavily favored to win the series opener, but analyst Jules Posner has found value on the club outside the moneyline.
  • Check out below where he has landed for his top betting pick.

Braves vs. Nationals Odds

Braves Odds -250
Nationals Odds +200
Over/Under 10 (-105 / -115)
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After coming within striking distance of first place in the NL East, the Braves dropped a home series against the New York Mets. Now, they head to the nation’s Capital to open a four-game set against the reeling Washington Nationals in Thursday’s action.

Atlanta recently swept Washington in a home series, plus the host has also lost six consecutive games. All experts agree that’s pretty bad.

Kyle Wright gets the road start for the Braves and Anibal Sanchez will be making his season debut for the Nationals. Frankly, I’m surprised to learn he hasn’t been pitching for the Nationals all season. You learn something new every day.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves had an excellent opportunity to move within a half game of the division lead, but after dropping two of three games to the Mets, they look to resume their NL East climb.

Wright has had an excellent season so far. He has been particularly excellent on the road as well. This season, Wright has posted a 2.75 ERA, a 3.05 FIP and a 3.41 xFIP, which are all well above league average.

The Braves’ bullpen is one of the best units in baseball, but it has posted an alarming 4.69 FIP against a 3.12 ERA, so it might be due for some regression as a staff.

Atlanta’s offense was relatively quiet in the New York series, but heads back out on the road where it has been the fourth-best road offense against RHP over the past couple of weeks in terms of team wRC+.

Washington Nationals

Anibal Sanchez, who has not been on the roster this whole time, gets his first start of 2022. He has a tall task ahead taking on a Braves offense that hasn’t only been hot of late, but probably has additional motivation following its series loss to the Mets.

Additionally, the Washington bullpen has been one of the worst units over the past couple of weeks, which does not bode well when it comes to suppressing the Braves’ hot road offense.

The Nationals’ offense has been quietly okay against RHP at home over the past couple of weeks. It has actually been perfectly average, posting an exact 100 team wRC+ against RHP at home over the past couple of weeks that’s good for 15th in baseball.

Overall, Washington has been one of the worst offenses at home against RHP and Wright is very good.

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Braves-Nationals Pick

In addition to losing their last six games, the Nationals are also 1-9 over their last 10 outings. On the other side, the Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 contests despite dropping their last series.

That said, it seems like things are looking pretty good for the Braves to grab a win, but at -225 odds the moneyline isn’t the best value. Even -1.5 and -130 odds doesn’t seem like the best value for a run line, but it does seem like the most likely outcome.

So, we might as well go ahead and take that before it moves to -2.5 before first pitch. I’d only play it at -130 or better.

Pick: Atlanta RL -1.5 (-130)

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