Brewers vs. Cardinals MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Look For Stylistic Edge in NL Central Bout (Saturday, August 13)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes
Brewers vs. Cardinals Odds
|Over/Under||7 (-125 / +105)|
|Time||7:15 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
A pitcher’s duel which we may not ever get to see again will take place in St. Louis on Saturday when Corbin Burnes toes the slab against Adam Wainwright.
St. Louis moved 1.5 games clear of the Brewers in the NL Central with a win on Friday, but according to oddsmakers it should be Milwaukee’s turn to take a game and set up a thrilling rubber match on Sunday.
Are they right? Let’s break this down.
Brewers Looking at Stylistic Intricacies
The Brewers’ offense has been fleeting of late, checking in with a 91 wRC+ in the last week, though on the whole they’ve been quite impressive since the break with the fourth-best performance in that category.
We know them to be a team which enjoys lifting and driving the ball, considering they’re ninth in barrel rate and 10th in hard-hit rate for the season.
While they’re not exactly great at keeping the ball off the ground, ranking 14th in ground ball rate will do just fine, as will the 11th-best fly ball rate.
Speaking of ground balls, Corbin Burnes continues to be strong in that area, as well as pretty much every other area. His strikeout rate still sits in the top 5% of the league and his 2.83 xERA is proof enough that he’s been every bit the pitcher that his 2.45 ERA would indicate.
We know Burnes is good, so there is really no use in talking any more about his amazing numbers. I will note that he owns a 4.15 ERA in his last three starts, though he has dominated St. Louis both times he’s faced the team this year with 21 strikeouts in 14 scoreless innings.
He’s allowed just four hits.
Cardinals Not in Love With Matchup
The Cardinals have won nine of 11 games now and don’t seem to be stopping any time soon. They rank second in baseball in wRC+ for the past week, and they’ve done an excellent job at the plate with a 9.5% walk rate and low 16.4% strikeout rate.
Their Isolated Power is an insane .244. Like the Brewers, the Cardinals have generally been good at limiting ground balls this season and rank seventh in fly ball rate.
Wainwright has once again been solid this season at the age of 40. His ground ball rate comes in a hair above league average and is the driving force behind his 3.42 ERA.
There are a few warning signs here, like a .372 xwOBA on contact, which is four points higher than average, and a barrel rate of 7.7%, which is the highest he’s registered in the Statcast era.
With that said, he’s never had particularly great peripherals and he’s always found a way to get outs and win games. Some of that is to do with the Cardinals’ superb defense.
Unlike Burnes, Wainwright has gotten no joy out of this matchup. He’s faced the Brewers three times this season, pitching to a 7.07 ERA and giving up a total of four homers.
The head-to-head is truly lopsided here when you look at both pitchers’ starts against the opposing teams, and it’s very hard to ignore it. The Brewers are a pretty good matchup for Wainwright as a team which can hit the ball in the air, and they’ve been hot in the second half.
I think the oddsmakers have this one right; I’ll take a shot on the Brewers as road favorites despite the heater the Cardinals are on.
Pick: Brewers ML (-145)