Brewers vs. Cardinals Odds Pick: Burnes vs. Wainwright Projects As A Pitchers’ Duel (Tuesday, August 17)
Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes (left) and Adam Wainwright.
- The Brewers and Cardinals open a series on Tuesday night at Busch Stadium.
- Corbin Burnes will continue his Cy Young bid against a Cardinals offense that has come to life a bit of late.
- Jeff Hicks breaks down the matchup and delivers his pick for the game below.
Brewers vs. Cardinals Odds
|Time||Tuesday, 7:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings|
A quick look at the National League Central standings shows the Milwaukee Brewers running away with the division.
Even with a comfortable 7 1/2-game lead, Milwaukee has to take their three-game series in St. Louis seriously. The Cardinals are winners of six straight and 4 1/2 games back of the second wild-card spot in the NL. The Brewers have not lost a road series since the beginning of May.
The Cardinals excel at home while the Brewers have a better win-loss record away from Milwaukee. Heading into Tuesday night’s game, the two teams have only played each other six times. Each club has three wins and won two of three as the road team.
Chasing trends could lead bettors to chase Milwaukee, but the Brewers and Cardinals have not played one another since May 11-13. A lot has changed in three months, which makes this game and teams even more interesting to dig into.
Burnes, Offense Can Correct Course
Having won six of their last seven games, the Brewers head to St. Louis with their big-three starters set to take the mound.
First up is Corbin Burnes.
Burnes is one of the favorites for the NL Cy Young Award and has pitched better on the road this season. He has scattered 10 extra-base hits against 222 batters faced and is allowing a slash line of .204/.239/.284 in 56 2/3 innings pitched outside of Milwaukee.
Offensively, the Brewers have improved steadily throughout the season and are scoring 5.5 runs per game in 14 August contests. This has aided the offense’s 101 wRC+ on the road against right-handed pitching. That matters not only because they have excelled against pitchers like Adam Wainwright, but because St. Louis’s best bullpen arms are right-handed, as well.
St. Louis ‘Voodoo Magic’ Returns
Wainwright has no business pitching as well as he has in 2021. His throwback to his glory days is one of the few bright spots in their rotation and a constant as they have battled their way into the playoff picture.
The 39-year old has a 2.79 ERA at Busch Stadium and has allowed nine homers in 93 2/3 innings pitched while allowing eight in 54 2/3 innings on the road.
Wainwright pitched well against the Brewers in his lone start against them, but it’s difficult to use that outing as a positive since it was in April.
Offensively, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt have combined for their best offensive run of the season. Arenado is slugging .783 over the past week, while Goldschmidt has 11 RBIs in August, despite seemingly losing his power this season.
The Cards offense has been as productive as Milwaukee’s in August, averaging 4.9 runs in 13 games.
Fading Burnes feels like a trap, but a home underdog with its best pitcher going is enticing.
Here, though, I have to go against my natural instinct. The Brewers are 23-13 (63.9%) as road favorites while the Cardinals are 9-8 (52.9%) as the home dog.
St. Louis has also been living dangerously despite being five games over .500. The Cardinals’ expected win/loss record is 56-61, a five-game swing, and they have a -21 run differential.
Pick: Brewers ML (-150, bet to -155) | Brewers Run Line First Five Innings 0.5 (-105, bet to -115)