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Brewers vs. Marlins Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Corbin Burnes & Pablo Lopez To Keep Score Low (May 13)

Brewers vs. Marlins Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Corbin Burnes & Pablo Lopez To Keep Score Low (May 13) article feature image
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Casey Sykes/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes.

  • The Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewer will send their aces to the mound as they open their series Friday night.
  • Pablo Lopez and Corbin Burnes boast ERAs under 2.00, so the total for this game is already set at a low 6.5 runs.
  • Check out Tony Sartori's full betting guide and breakdown for this projected pitcher's duel below.

Brewers vs. Marlins Odds

Brewers Odds -140
Marlins Odds +115
Over/Under 6.5 (+100 / -120)
Time 6:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the first matchup of a three-game series between the NL Central’s Milwaukee Brewers and the NL East’s Miami Marlins. This is the first matchup between these two teams this season, and two aces are scheduled to take the mound in Corbin Burnes and Pablo Lopez.

Will these two starting pitchers live up to the hype and keep this total under, or can the bats awaken?


Brewers to Rely on Burnes

The Milwaukee Brewers enter this contest in poor form, losing four of their last five outings. Milwaukee will rely on ace right-hander Corbin Burnes to break the streak.

Burnes has been outstanding following his Cy Young campaign. He enters this game with a 1.86 ERA and .802 WHIP through six starts. The total has gone under 6.5 in four of those six games.

His metrics suggest that regression is not something to worry about, as he boasts a .280 xwOBA, .212 xBA and .385 xSLG.

Milwaukee will also boast a strong bullpen when Burnes is done for the night. The Brewers’ relief pitching ranks 12th in the league in wOBA and ninth in FIP.

However, this pitching staff may not get much run support as the Brewers are slated to go against right-hander Pablo Lopez. In 20 career plate appearances against Lopez, this current Brewers roster possesses a mere .242 xBA, .363 xSLG and .305 xwOBA.

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Lopez Off to Hot Start for Marlins

The Marlins also enter this matchup in poor form, losing nine of their last 11 games. This is a battle of the aces as Lopez looks to take the mound for the Marlins.

Lopez has been outstanding to start the season with a 4-1 record to go along with a 1.00 ERA and .889 WHIP through six starts. Like Burnes, regression does not appear to be looming for Lopez as he boasts a .282 xwOBA, .246 xBA and .359 xSLG.

Also like Milwaukee, Miami’s bullpen has been solid to start the year. This season, Miami’s relief pitching ranks 11th in the league in ERA, 13th in wOBA and 12th in FIP.

Going against Burnes, the Marlins could struggle to generate runs in this contest. In 47 career plate appearances against Burnes, this current Marlins roster possesses a .220 xBA, .327 xSLG and .265 xwOBA.

Brewers-Marlins Pick

Between these two starting pitchers this season, the under has hit 58.3% of the time. With how great each pitcher has been this year, I expect this trend to continue.

Additionally, both bullpens are competent enough to keep the total down after each starter gets pulled. This total may drop to six before first pitch, but I would not play the under at that number.

Pick: Under 6.5 (-125 | Play to -130)

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