The San Diego Padres host the Toronto Blue Jays on July 12, 2026. First pitch from Petco Park is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNET.
The Blue Jays are favored by -131 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Blue Jays vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Blue Jays vs Padres Prediction
- Blue Jays vs Padres Pick: Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-119, DraftKings)
My Blue Jays vs Padres best bet is for Kevin Gausman to stay under his strikeout prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Blue Jays vs Padres Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -122o / 101u | -131 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8.5 -122o / 101u | +108 |
- Blue Jays vs Padres moneyline: Blue Jays -131, Padres +108
- Blue Jays vs Padres over/under: 8.5 (-122o / +101u)
- Blue Jays vs Padres spread: Blue Jays -1.5 (+125), Padres +1.5 (-150)
Blue Jays vs Padres Kalshi MLB Odds
Blue Jays vs Padres Probable Pitchers
| RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR) | Stat | RHP German Marquez (SDP) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-8 | W-L | 4-2 |
| 2.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.3 |
| 4.32/3.89 | ERA / xERA | 5.02/5.64 |
| 3.75/3.76 | FIP / xFIP | 6.10/5.62 |
| 17.8% | K-BB% | 3.7% |
| 39.6% | GB% | 34.2% |
| .295 | BABIP | .255 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 87 |
| 108 | Location+ | 100 |
Blue Jays vs Padres MLB Betting Preview
Kevin Gausman is the clear A-side of this pitching matchup, but he's been stumbling into the All-Star break, and this talented San Diego lineup has begun to find its groove a bit against righties.
Starting with Gausman, he has a 6.49 ERA over his last five starts. There has not been a drop-off in his ability to generate strikeouts, but his CSW has dipped five percent, and his walks are way up in that span.
Command issues have led to an increase in loud contact, which has led to damage on the scoreboard.
As for the Padres, they are not the formidable high-contact lineup we've known the past few seasons. They've shown a bevy of holes this season, and the drop-off in contact rate is astonishing given that many of the same bats made this team the toughest to strike out in the National League the past two years.
While they have not been consistent, this team still has the discipline and pop to make Gausman work in the zone and capitalize on any mistakes.
Fade Gausman here, as he looks like a veteran in much need of a break.
Pick: Kevin Gausman Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-119, DraftKings)
