Brewers vs. Mets MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Burnes Set To End Milwaukee’s Woes (Wednesday, June 15)
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes
- The Brewers are slight favorites on the road tonight against the Mets.
- Corbin Burnes takes the mound for Milwaukee, opposed by New York's David Peterson.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Brewers vs. Mets Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (-114 / -106)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Mets are back to their winning ways, taking three of their last four and heading into the second of three against the Brewers in search of another series win.
New York will trot out David Peterson for another start opposite Corbin Burnes, leaving this result up in the air. Which team will prevail? Let’s take a look.
Brewers, Burnes Scuffling
Not even Burnes has been able to avoid taking a few Ls lately for the Brewers, who have lost nine of their last 10 games. The right-hander has lost back-to-back starts, completing eight innings across the two outings with six earned runs on 11 hits and four walks. He absolutely has not looked like Corbin Burnes.
One thing that’s remained consistent with Burnes is his strikeout numbers. He’s fanned 14 in the last two outings and is still sporting an elite 31.8% strikeout rate for the season which sits in the top 9% of the league.
Other than that, though, it’s been a rather unspectacular season for Burnes, who has seen his hard-hit rate rise to 38.1% with a 3.08 xERA. The man who won the Cy Young Award a year ago has been tamed in 2022.
Speaking of tame, this Brewers offense has been bad. It ranks 29th out of 30 teams in wRC+ over the last two weeks with a mark of 68 (league average is 100). They’ve walked in just 6.7% of plate appearances though it’s worth noting they’re sixth in contact rate over that span.
It’s not as if they’re completely lost, but they do lack quality contact.
Mets Luck Running Out?
Speaking of contact, the kings have fallen off just a tad lately. New York ranks just 10th in that category over the last two weeks, 20th in hard-hit rate and 18th in barrel rate. With all of that has come a 107 wRC+, good for 14th in the league.
The Mets have never been a powerhouse at the plate this season, but they’ve managed to find soft spots in the defense for base hits on softly-hit balls. The Mets have gotten to this point by making more contact than almost anyone and killing opposing pitchers with their relentlessness. So, it’s definitely an interesting turn of events to see New York regressing a bit on offense.
I’m not ready to say the Mets’ luck has run out, but perhaps this team will wind up a firmly above-average one on offense and not an elite one.
Let’s talk about Peterson, too. He’s been pretty crummy this season despite a 3.00 ERA, pitching to a high 3.96 xERA with a below-average 21.2% strikeout rate and 11.9% walk rate.
There is no part of his game which can be considered good, he’s just been very fortunate to get out of trouble despite offering up so many free passes.
This isn’t a good matchup for the Mets. They’re struggling to make contact with the ball and now have to compete with someone sitting in the 99th percentile of the league in whiff rate.
Burnes may be yielding homers and walks, but those are not two things the Mets are known for. They will swing a lot, and they generally will make a lot of contact. A concoction of a swing-and-miss pitcher and some recent struggles have me feeling good about Milwaukee.
If there’s going to be any time to bet on the Brewers, it’s probably a Burnes game, and if there’s going to be a time to fade the Mets it’s definitely a Peterson game. This makes sense.
Pick: Brewers ML (-134)