Brewers vs Phillies Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Thursday, July 20
Pictured: Corbin Burnes. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
Brewers vs. Phillies Odds
ALERT: Corbin Burnes is an underdog. One of the best pitchers in the National League is an underdog in Thursday’s matinee between the Milwaukee Brewers and Philadelphia Phillies.
Both the Phillies and Brewers have fared well against right-handed pitching in July. Typically, the Phillies would carry a tremendous edge over Milwaukee, but with Christian Yelich looking like himself again, the Brewers are starting to hit better.
Since the Brewers also have the better bullpen, they should be favored in this game.
Burnes owns a 1.89 ERA over three starts this month. On the season, he has a 3.73 ERA against a 3.57 xERA and his Average Exit Velocity (86 mph) ranks in the 93rd percentile. His Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 86th percentile and his strikeout rate is nearly 25%.
The Brewers own a 94 wRC+ off of righties in July. However, they have an 11.8% walk rate and a sub-20% strikeout rate. Taijuan Walker, the Phillies starter, has nearly a 10% walk rate, so the Brewers should be on base early and often. As an added bonus, Milwaukee has eight hitters with a .319+ xwOBA off of righties in July (at least 10 plate appearances).
Corbin Burnes, 11th, 12th and 13th Ks. pic.twitter.com/s1iUK1Eh53
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 15, 2023
In addition, the Brewers bullpen has been great with a 2.67 xFIP this month.
Walker, as noted above, has control problems. His xERA and ERA are right in line at 4.00, but his Hard-Hit Rate is 39% and his Average Exit Velocity is 88.6 mph.
The Phillies have a 121 wRC+ with a 6.2% walk rate and a 20.2% strikeout rate off righties in July, but most of those righties aren't on Burnes’ tier. Amongst active players with 10+ plate appearances, the Phillies only have four bats with an xwOBA over .400.
The Phillies have a weaker bullpen and they may need their ‘pen more if Walker struggles.
Brewers vs. Phillies Betting Pick
Simply put, Burnes shouldn't be an underdog against a weaker starting pitcher, especially with the Brewers’ bats picking up steam. Look for Milwaukee to score some runs early and back the Brewers from +106 to -125.
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