Cardinals vs. Giants MLB Odds & Pick: Fade St. Louis in San Francisco (Monday, July 5)
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Buster Posey.
- The San Francisco Giants are set to host the St. Louis Cardinals at 6:05 p.m. ET on Monday night.
- The Giants seemingly have all of the advantages in this game and are heavy favorites for the first game of this series.
- Check out Kevin Davis' betting guide, complete with odds a pick, and a prediction below.
Cardinals vs. Giants Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||6:05 p.m. ET|
This week, the San Francisco Giants host the St. Louis Cardinals.
With half of the season in the bag, the Giants are shockingly tied for first place in the NL West with a 52-30 record. San Francisco is on track to win 103 games due to the success of its hitters and veteran starting pitchers overperforming expectations.
The opposing Cardinals have struggled this year due to mediocrity from their starting rotation, a weak bullpen, and an underperforming lineup.
For Monday night’s game, The Giants have a clear edge in starting pitching with Kevin Gausman going against Kwang Hyun Kim and the Cardinals. The question is whether or not the Giants are worth a bet as heavy -180 favorites.
Bullpen Woes Continue for Cardinals
The biggest weakness for the Cardinals this season has been their bullpen. Even though St. Louis’ bullpen owns a 4.21 ERA — the 11th-highest in MLB — they have a 4.79 xFIP, which is the worst out of all 30 MLB teams. Once you factor in fielding and ballpark effects, the Cards relievers should be allowing the most runs per nine innings.
For St. Louis to win games, it needs decent starting pitchers who can throw deep into games. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, their starting pitcher for Monday’s game does not meet that description.
In 13 starts this season, Kim has a 3.79 ERA and a 4.52 xFIP. Most importantly, Kim is averaging less than 4.2 innings per start. With the Cardinals likely needing to rely on an unreliable bullpen for almost half of Monday’s game, they’re vulnerable against a tough Giants lineup.
Backing up Kim is a St. Louis lineup that averages only 3.95 runs per game, the fourth-lowest in MLB. With the average team scoring 4.45 runs per game, the Cardinals are underperforming.
Outside of Nolan Arenado, St. Louis’ hitters have not earned their keep this season.
Giants’ Lineup Keeps Rolling
Since joining the Giants in 2020, Gausman has had the best two years of his career. Last year, Gausman put up a 3.62 ERA and a 3.06 xFIP. This season, Gausman boasts an 8-2 record to go along with a 1.68 ERA while averaging 6.1 innings per start.
The only downside about betting on Gausman is that his xFIP of 3.33 suggests he’s a regression candidate for the second half of the season. However, even if Gausman regresses, he should do well against the Cardinals.
Supporting Gausman is a Giants lineup that will provide him great run support. San Francisco averages 4.94 runs per game, which is the second-best mark in the National League. Only the Dodgers score more runs per game than the Giants.
With every position player in San Francisco’s lineup having an average or above-average offensive season outside of the pitcher’s spot in the lineup, there is nowhere for opposing pitchers to hide against the Giants.
I’m usually not a fan of backing heavy favorites, but the Giants are worth the price, particularly with Kevin Gausman on the mound.
The Cardinals have a weak bullpen and are not helped by a starting pitcher who can barely go five innings.
Playing against a strong Giants lineup and a strong pitcher in Gausman while hitting the road, St. Louis should be an even heavier dog than it currently is.
At -180, the Giants’ moneyline is worth betting on, and I would bet it up to -195.
Pick: Giants ML(-180) (Play to -195)