Cardinals vs Orioles Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Monday, September 11
Jeff Curry, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Dakota Hudson
Cardinals vs. Orioles Odds
The first installment of this three-game interleague series gets underway Monday evening with the AL East's Baltimore Orioles hosting the NL Central's St. Louis Cardinals.
It has been polar opposite seasons for these two clubs, with Baltimore looking to win the AL East for the first time in nearly a decade while St. Louis sits at the bottom of its division.
Will the Orioles take care of business, or can the Cardinals pull off the road upset?
Here's a look at the odds and my Cardinals vs. Orioles betting pick and prediction.
Right-hander Dakota Hudson takes the mound for St. Louis and should be a good fade candidate. Through 14 appearances this season, the right-hander possesses a 4.43 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.
His analytics suggest that positive regression is unlikely as Hudson ranks in the 16th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and Hard-Hit%. Somehow, his strikeout metrics are even worse, ranking in the second percentile in K%, eighth percentile in Whiff% and 16th percentile in Chase%.
Currently, you can find Hudson's strikeout prop at 2.5 via FanDuel, a number he has gone Under in each of his past three starts. These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Baltimore.
A big part of the Orioles' successful year has been their hitting. Entering this matchup, they rank Top 10 in the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG and OPS.
They also do a good job of avoiding strikeouts, ranking 13th in K% when facing right-handed pitching. Looking at Monday's projected starting lineup, five of the nine hitters possess a K% south of 22% this season.
This avoidance of the strikeout is likely to continue against Hudson. Through 21 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Baltimore lineup boasts a mere 4.8 K% and 8.3 Whiff%.
Cardinals vs. Orioles
Betting Pick & Prediction
I mentioned above that Hudson has failed to surpass two strikeouts in each of his past three starts. Over those three outings, he is 1-1 with a 5.60 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and 1.53 K/9.
Even if he delivers a stronger outing (unlikely), I still doubt he will be able to get the punchout working. Even in his last good start against Pittsburgh – a game in which Hudson allowed just one run on three hits through seven innings pitched – he recorded zero strikeouts.
At plus-money, let's target Hudson to stay Under 2.5 strikeouts for a fourth straight start.
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