The Detroit Tigers host the Philadelphia Phillies on July 12, 2026. First pitch from Comerica Park is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on DSN.
The Tigers are -112 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The Phillies are -104 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Tigers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Tigers Prediction
- Phillies vs Tigers Pick: Tigers ML (-112; Play to -135)
My Phillies vs Tigers best bet is on Detroit to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Phillies vs Tigers Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +172 | 7.5 102o / -124u | -104 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7.5 102o / -124u | -112 |
- Phillies vs Tigers moneyline: Phillies -104, Tigers -112
- Phillies vs Tigers over/under: 7.5 (+102o / -124u)
- Phillies vs Tigers spread: Phillies -1.5 (+172), Tigers +1.5 (-210)
Phillies vs Tigers Probable Pitchers
| RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) | Stat | LHP Tarik Skubal (DET) |
|---|---|---|
| 9-1 | W-L | 5-4 |
| 2.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 2.28/2.70 | ERA / xERA | 3.06/3.20 |
| 3.10/2.89 | FIP / xFIP | 3.11/2.47 |
| 23.4% | K-BB% | 26.8% |
| 46.0% | GB% | 46.2% |
| .241 | BABIP | .278 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 118 |
| 108 | Location+ | 107 |
Phillies vs Tigers MLB Betting Preview, Pick
Phillies vs Tigers Pick, Betting Analysis
Zack Wheeler might not be an All-Star, but I do not doubt that he's one of the best pitchers in baseball. The 36-year-old owns a 2.28 ERA with a strong 2.70 xERA and 3.11 FIP.
His Stuff is a bit down from last year, posting a 104 Stuff+ compared to 111 last year, but he still generates a ton of chase (94th percentile) and strikeouts (10.14 K/9).
Although pitcher wins are an archaic stat, Wheeler is 9-1, and the Phillies are 12-2 in his 14 outings. That's a super impressive mark and displays Wheeler's dominance.
Nobody matches up well with Tarik Skubal, but the Phillies match up particularly poorly. They have a left-handed heavy lineup, leading to them ranking 25th in MLB with an 85 wRC+ against southpaws.
Kyle Schwarber is Philadelphia's best hitter against lefties (160 wRC+), and Bryson Stott is the only other player with a wRC+ above 100. The Phillies have two other All-Stars — Bryce Harper and Brandon Marsh and both struggle in left-on-left matchups.
Hitting left-handers must be contagious because not even the righties can hit them. Trea Turner is running a woeful 59 wRC+ and a .205 average, while Alec Bohm is hitting .200 with a 64 wRC+.
Detroit fans should cherish every Skubal start because there may not be many more for him in the Motor City.
In five starts since returning from an injury, Skubal has a 3.57 ERA with a 3.00 xERA and a 4.56 FIP. The home run bug has bitten Skubal upon his return, allowing eight home runs in his five outings, compared to two homers in his first seven starts.
Still, the stuff is there. He's running a 13.9 K/9, and the home runs are the only thing holding Skubal back from his prime form.
If we expand the year for Skubal, he boasts a 3.06 ERA with a solid 3.20 xERA and 3.11 FIP. That's a "down season" for Skubal because his last two seasons were video-game-like.
Offensively, the Tigers have been on fire of late (since June 20th), ranking 11th in MLB with a 109 wRC+. They have 30 homers in that span, ranking fifth in the league.
I mentioned not hitting being contagious, but on the flip side, hitting is also contagious. Six regulars in the Tigers lineup have a wRC+ better than 100 in those 20 games, led by Riley Greene (162 wRC+). AL Rookie of the Year favorite Kevin McGonigle deserves some love, too. His ability to put the ball in play, draw walks, and hit for power gives this Tigers team a different element.
When looking at the lines here, I considered a few different things. With the Phillies' inability to hit lefties, I want no part of them on the ML. What I looked at were ways to back Skubal and the Tigers. The total is just 7.5 runs, which is super light, even in a pitching duel between two aces.
I don't feel comfortable taking that. But I will take Detroit ML at -112 to -135. You'll rarely get a chance to back a pitcher of Skubal's caliber at home at such a low price.
Pick: Tigers ML (-112; Play to -135)
