If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Boston Red Sox host the Chicago Cubs on September 25, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Cubs are favored by -120 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are +100 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Cubs vs. Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Red Sox Prediction
- Cubs vs Red Sox Pick: Under 6.5 (-115)
Our Cubs vs Red Sox best bet is Under 6.5 total runs this afternoon. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Cubs vs Red Sox Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -120 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | +100 |
- Cubs vs Red Sox moneyline: Cubs -120, Red Sox +100
- Cubs vs Red Sox over/under: 6.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Cubs vs Red Sox spread: Cubs -1.5 (+150), Red Sox +1.5 (-185)
Cubs vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| Clay Holmes (RHP, CHC) | Stat | Alec Gamboa (LHP, BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-8 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 3.25 / 3.89 | ERA / xERA | 1.16 / 2.80 |
| 3.62 / 3.83 | FIP / xFIP | 3.16 / 3.81 |
| 9.0 | K-BB% | 9.9 |
| 60.1 | GB% | 57.0 |
| .245 | BABIP | .253 |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 99 | Location+ | 95 |
Cubs vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
Fenway Park is traditionally a hitter-friendly stadium, but when wind blows inward, it significantly suppresses offensive output, particularly fly balls that would otherwise clear the Green Monster or drop in for extra-base hits.
Those conditions are present this afternoon in Boston for Game 1 of Friday's doubleheader and have activated our Bet Labs "Wind Blowing In at Fenway, Bet Under" system to support a low-scoring contest today.
Clay Holmes gets the ball for the Cubs. On top of his solid season, he has a 60.1% ground-ball rate, which also bodes very well for this scenario.
Lefty Alec Gamboa starts for the Red Sox, and with a 1.16 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, he's done great in his first MLB season. However, Boston relievers will likely follow soon, as Gamboa hasn't gone past the second inning since August 14th.
That's also great news, as the Red Sox bullpen ranks first in the majors in ERA (3.05).
Cubs vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
When betting the under in games played at Fenway with inward wind conditions, both regular and postseason data show that totals are often set too high relative to actual outcomes.
This creates a profitable contrarian angle, taking advantage of a weather-based edge that is not always fully baked into the market.
Pick: Under 6.5 (-115, Fanatics)
