There's no shortage of intrigue as the MLB regular season winds down, with playoff spots and postseason positioning still up for grabs across the league.
Thursday's slate gives us another opportunity to attack the player prop market, and I've identified my favorite spots on the board as teams navigate these crucial final games of the season.
Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Thursday, September 24, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
MLB Player Props Today
- Peter Lambert 3+ Earned Runs (55c, Kalshi)
- Tyler Glasnow Under 17.5 Outs (49c, Kalshi)
Astros vs Athletics Player Prop
Peter Lambert has quietly offered steady results for the Astros down the stretch, as since the All-Star break he has pitched to an ERA of 4.43 with an xERA of 3.97 across 12 starts. If not for allowing nine earned runs in one of those outings, his ERA would be drastically more impressive, too.
But with respect to Lambert's recent form, a price of 56c for Lambert to allow three or more earned runs in a matchup at baseball's second most batter-friendly ballpark still looks quite strong. Particularly given the state of the Astros bullpen and the fact that Lambert will likely receive a fairly lengthy leash in this outing.
Over the last 65 innings, Lambert still holds a well below average Stuff+ rating of 93. He doesn't generate much swing-and-miss and few ground balls, which are both notable concerns at Sutter Health Park.
Pick: Peter Lambert 3+ Earned Runs (55c, Kalshi)
Padres vs Dodgers Player Prop
The red-hot Padres can officially clinch a playoff berth Thursday, with either a win over the rival Dodgers or a surprising loss from the Diamondbacks at Coors Field. While this matchup also does have some meaning for the Dodgers, who could still finish as the top seed in the NL, it doesn't seem like a logical spot to use injury-prone Tyler Glasnow too heavily in what will be his final tune-up for the postseason.
In Glasnow's last three starts, he has thrown 98, 91, and 96 pitches. He is obviously fully stretched out, but it seems pretty logical to believe he gets a shorter leash in Thursday's matchup given that the Dodgers have little incentive not to play it safe.
Regardless of Glasnow's pitch count, this will not be an easy spot for him to work deep into the ballgame. Since July 1, the Padres have been the best offense in baseball versus right-handed pitching, with a wRC+ of 119, and the third highest expected weighted on-base average.
Pick: Tyler Glasnow Under 17.5 Outs (49c, Kalshi)
