With time running out on the regular season schedule, Thursday brings an action-packed board full of high-stakes baseball and prime betting opportunities.
We have picks for five top matchups throughout the day: White Sox vs. Royals (2:10 p.m. ET), Mets vs. Rangers (2:35 p.m. ET), Brewers vs. Phillies (6:05 p.m. ET), Guardians vs. Red Sox (6:45 p.m. ET), and Padres vs. Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET).
Read below for our 5 MLB Best Bets for Thursday, September 24.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 2:35 PM | |
  | 6:05 PM | |
  | 6:45 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Derek Carty's White Sox vs Royals K Prop
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Randy Dobnak's strikeouts prop.
THE BAT X is projecting him to record 3.06 strikeouts, while oddsmakers are implying 3.79.
The model believes there is a 64% chance he records fewer than 4 strikeouts, so there is value on the under at +105.
This play is good down to at least -141.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
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Pick: Randy Dobnak Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105; Play to -141)
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BARTOLO Mets vs Rangers F5 Pick
By Action Network Staff
Sean Zerillo's projections show solid value on the first-five-innings total in this Mets vs. Rangers matchup, with a 3.5% edge on the over.
BARTOLO projects 4.96 runs in the first five innings, well above the 4.5 line offered. The key here is the low confidence in both starters.
Even though his overall stats look better, Zerillo has Mets starter Zac Thornton ranked lower among SPs than the Rangers' Kumar Rocker.
While Thornton has the 142nd spot, Rocker ranks 119th. Obviously, none of that is encouraging when having to face two lineups with clear home run potential.
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Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-120)
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Action PRO's Brewers vs Phillies High-Value Hitting Prop
By Action PRO
Action PRO projects Luis Arraez for 1.67 hits against Milwaukee's pitching staff, creating a strong 18.9% edge against his current over/under line of 1.5 hits and earning an A+ grade in our projection system.
Arraez anchors the Phillies' lineup with a team-leading .312 batting average alongside 33 doubles, seven triples, six home runs, and 64 RBIs.
He has already collected multi-hit performances in two of his past four games, and taking on Bryse Wilson provides a favorable matchup for his elite contact tool.
Given his current rhythm at the plate and the appealing plus-money price tag, backing Arraez Over 1.5 Hits offers excellent value.
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Pick: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Hits (+225)
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Charlie Wright's Guardians vs Red Sox F5 Pick
It's chilly with winds blowing in at Fenway again.
Ranger Suarez has allowed just 2 earned runs across 3 starts in September. He's been better against righties than lefties this season, so the matchup shouldn't be an issue, even if Cleveland stuffs the lineup with right-handed bats.
Daniel Espino will open ahead of Joey Cantillo. Espino has been a bit shaky lately, but Cantillo has been tremendous in a bulk relief role.
He's fired 10 scoreless innings, allowing just three hits. Boston ranks 27th or worse in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ against lefties since the start of August.
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Pick: F5 Under 3.5 (-108)
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Matt Trollo's Padres vs Dodgers Underdog Bet
By Matt Trollo
After missing most of the season, Nick Pivetta has returned for seven starts with his velocity intact at 94 mph and a 23.3 K-BB% that would be the best of his career, as would be his 35.9 HardHit%.
Although he’s held a K-BB above 19% each of the previous three seasons, his worst and only time below was last season, his first with San Diego. Pivetta has hard-hit hit rates above 43% in three of the previous four seasons, with double-digit barrel rates for three straight seasons. 9.0% Barrels/BBE this year would mark the second-lowest rate since leaving Philly.
Tyler Glasnow has made only 12 starts and been even more exceptional with a 24.2 K-BB% and 39.2 HardHit% (8.5% Barrels/BBE), all of which align with career rates.
These pitchers have very similar small sample numbers this season, though I have to give Glasnow at least a slight edge for his larger body of superior work.
With the Dodger lineup fully healthy (or at least present) again, we’re looking at a projected nine averaging a 118 wRC+ on the road, 119 wRC+ against RHP and 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
However, we’re also looking at their San Diego counterparts averaging a 115 wRC+ at home, 116 wRC+ against RHP, and 125 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Xander Bogaerts (95) and Jake Cronenworth are the only below average Padres against RHP this year. As much as I didn’t expect to see Samad Taylor (156), Ty France (146), and Luis Campusano (129) leading the charge, just about everyone else started so poorly that it’s a victory to have them all reach 100 by the end of the season.
Jackson Merrill (152 wRC+ L30 days) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (133) have really turned their season around.
While the Dodgers project a solid defense (8 FRV), the Padres project 23 FRV better.
These teams also have the 2nd (Dodgers) and 3rd (Padres) best bullpen estimators over the last 30, days with BARTOLO ranking them 3rd (Dodgers) and 4th (Padres) in their season numbers.
Projected lineups are even separated by just 1 BRR (Base Running Runs).
I’m failing to see the separation that makes the Dodgers a significant favorite here. I have them closer to 55% (full game and F5), perhaps even less if Ohtani is still physically compromised.
The great caveat here is that the Padres and Dodgers have only played two games on Wednesday night as this is being written, and if San Diego should win, they may not be playing for much, though Wild Card seeding (all three spots) is still completely up for grabs.
Yet, so is the number one spot in the National League, should the Dodgers and Brewers look to compete for it.
Although I’m conflicted between calling this a lean or posting it as a play right now, with Novig currently floating 38.5% (or +160), I’m going to aggressively fire here on matchup alone without being sure of the stakes.
I might advise a bit more caution for those playing this on a more traditional sportsbook without the ability to trade out as easily.
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Pick: Padres ML (+146)
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