The Philadelphia Phillies host the Chicago Cubs on June 10, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MARQ.
The Phillies will look to earn a series win over a high-quality Cubs side after snapping their six-game losing skid in the series opener. Philadelphia is just 2-8 across its past 10 games, which has allowed the red-hot New York Mets to stretch their lead atop the NL East to four games.
Game two of the series is priced as a pick-em, as Colin Rea (3.59 ERA, 57 2/3 IP) will face off against Mick Abel (0.79 ERA, 11 1/3 IP).
Find my MLB betting preview and Cubs vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Cubs vs Phillies Prediction
- Cubs vs Phillies picks: Colin Rea Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105) (Bet365, Play to -105)
My Cubs vs Phillies best bet is Colin Rea Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Phillies Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 9.5 -105 / -116 | -110 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -169 | 9.5 -105 / -116 | -109 |
Cubs vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Colin Rea (CHC) | Stat | RHP Mick Abel (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 3.59 /4.81 | ERA /xERA | 0.79 /3.14 |
| 4.32 /4.29 | FIP / xFIP | 1.13 /2.40 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 0.71 |
| 10.7% | K-BB% | 26.8% |
| 38.8% | GB% | 40% |
| 97 | Stuff+ | 111 |
| 100 | Location+ | 108 |
Nick Martin’s Cubs vs Phillies Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview
Rea appeared to be a likely candidate for regression last season after a surprisingly strong start to the year, and did fall apart in the second half with an ERA of 5.17 and a WHIP of 1.36. After another strong start to the 2025 campaign, he has started to struggle once again with an ERA of 4.85 across his past 39 innings.
Across his past five starts, Rea has allowed an xBA of .305, struck out only 15% of batters faced and holds a K-BB% of 6.7. He's allowed a zone-contact rate of 90% in that span and holds a swinging strike rate of 7.1%. His stuff does not grade out overly well, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 95 this season and 87 over his past two appearances.
Rea's recent underlying results are even more concerning as his past five starts have come versus the Miami Marlins, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds (twice) and Washington Nationals.
The Cubs' high-powered lineup is nearly at full strength and will provide a tough matchup for Mick Abel. They have hit to a wRC+ of 114 over the past 30 days and rank fourth in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The heart of the Phillies' order takes a big hit with Bryce Harper sidelined, but they still offer plenty of tough outs and should provide a tough test for Rea.
They have struck out only 20.5% of the time over the past 30 days and only 19.7% of the time versus right-handed pitchers this season. Philadelphia ranks fifth in weighted fastball runs above average, which should help it find success in a matchup versus Rea, who has thrown four-seam fastballs 48.7% of the time.
Abel has made the most of his opportunity as he's allowed just one earned run across his first two outings. He was not quite as dominant last time out versus the Toronto Blue Jays, but still features a solid underlying profile, albeit in a tiny sample size of 11 innings.
Abel has pitched to an xERA of 3.14 and a 2.40 xFIP in his first two appearances. His pitch metrics have also been excellent, as he owns a Stuff+ rating of 111 and a Pitching+ rating of 116.
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
Rea's form has continued to regress after a solid start to the year, and it seems more reasonable to believe that he is closer to the below-average starter we saw at the end of last season than the one we saw briefly to start this campaign. He's struck out only 15% of batters across his past five outings, and that was against a set of offenses more prone to striking out than the Phillies.
While 3.5 is a low strikeout prop for any starter, getting better than even money to back Rea at under 3.5 looks to provide value in a matchup against a Phillies lineup that hasn't struck out often against righties this season.
Pick: Collin Rea Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Moneyline
While I do not believe that Rea will find much success in this matchup, the prices on sides seem fair. It seems a little daunting to fully buy into Abel at this point, and the Cubs' lineup provides a very difficult test.
Run Line (Spread)
I don't see value in betting either side to cover the run-line at the current prices.
Over/Under
As the forecast is projecting slightly favorable conditions for run creation, my lean would be over 9.5 in terms of the total.
