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The Cleveland Guardians host the Chicago White Sox on October 3, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on truTV.
The Guardians are favored by -155 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The White Sox are +130 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and White Sox vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
White Sox vs Guardians Prediction
- White Sox vs Guardians Pick: F5 Under 3.5 (-102)
My White Sox vs Guardians best bet is a total of under 3.5 runs in the first five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
White Sox vs Guardians Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +144 | 7 -105o / -115u | +130 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -173 | 7 -105o / -115u | -155 |
- White Sox vs Guardians moneyline: White Sox +130, Guardians -155
- White Sox vs Guardians over/under: 7 (-105o / -115u)
- White Sox vs Guardians spread: Guardians -1.5 (+144 ), White Sox +1.5 (-173)
White Sox vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Hagen Smith | Stat | Parker Messick |
|---|---|---|
| 3-3 | W-L | 12-9 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.9 |
| 1.29 / 2.45 | ERA / xERA | 2.56 / 3.13 |
| 2.35 / 2.86 | FIP / xFIP | 3.07 / 3.37 |
| 22.7 | K-BB% | 19.3 |
| 43.4 | GB% | 44.3 |
| .192 | BABIP | .273 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 93 | Location+ | 106 |
White Sox vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Chicago White Sox Betting Preview
The White Sox' offense carried them into the ALDS, and they may be asked to do a bit more on Saturday with Hagen Smith on the mound for Game 1.
The rookie left-hander has only completed 28 innings at this level, but those innings were of relatively high quality. He finished with a 1.29 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, and struck out an impressive 37.3% of the batters he faced. He also did walk 14.5%, which will be interesting to watch against a Guardians team that has not walked or struck out much all year — particularly in the second half.
Now, Smith will likely only open this game and go a couple of innings, but as we saw with Ray Kerr in Game 3 of the NL wild-card series, the opener can certainly make an impact. He'll be pitching to what could be four lefties through the first six batters, assuming Cleveland wants to start Nathaniel Lowe, and behind Smith could be Anthony Kay for the second time through the order.
It's worth mentioning right about now that the Guardians are 25th in wRC+ to left-handed pitching, thanks in part to Lowe hitting .143 in the split, Steven Kwan .229 and Travis Bazzana just .185.
Chicago has four lefties in the bullpen, all of whom are rested, which means the first six through the order could see a lefty perhaps in three plate appearances. Should Cleveland elect to go David Fry over Lowe, that should still be an effective gameplan.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
The Guardians will counter with Parker Messick, who will surely be one of the finalists for the AL Cy Young award. The left-hander won't have the same type of platoon advantage as Chicago, considering the White Sox are actually one spot better in wRC+ when facing a southpaw, but he can make up for it with his ability.
Messick finished the year on a decent note with a 3.20 ERA in September, giving up just one home run in his last four outings. It wasn't something he did a lot of, surrendering just 17 in 32 starts, but it was something he had issues with against the White Sox. That lone home run was hit by Chicago, and in all he allowed four to the club in his four outings this season, though he still finished with a 2.81 ERA despite the homers.
Messick isn't the biggest strikeout arm in the world, but he did rack up eight or more strikeouts in three of his four starts against Chicago. The White Sox have struck out in 25.6% of their plate appearances through two games as well, making this a matchup worth watching. They did also benefit from some walks against the Astros, but won't have that luxury against a control master like Messick.
White Sox vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
We haven't seen this Guardians offense play in a week, and with how the top of the order struggled to hit left-handers this season, I'm not sure it's going to be a pretty start. Considering there are a number of lefties in the bullpen for Chicago, I don't foresee much getting done here offensively, and that's before the White Sox dig further into their impressive bullpen.
The White Sox, meanwhile, may hit lefties — and have homered off of Messick — but should still be held in check. Messick's done an admirable job pitching to this team four times, and more strikeouts and blank frames can surely be expected. Of course, I just said that about Hunter Brown last week before Chicago torched him, but this is a bona fide Cy Young candidate in Messick.
Bet on a slow start here as both staffs eat up innings in different ways.
Pick: F5 Under 3.5 (-102)
