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The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees on October 3, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on HBO Max.
The Rays are favored by 54 cents to win and by -1.5 on the run line. The Yankees are 46-cent underdogs and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Rays Prediction
- Yankees vs Rays Pick: Chandler Simpson to Record 1+ Stolen Base
My Yankees vs Rays best trade is for Chandler Simpson to record a stolen base. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Rays Kalshi Odds
Yankees vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| Gerrit Cole (RHP, NYY) | Stat | Drew Rasmussen (RHP, TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-9 | W-L | 16-11 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 5.0 |
| 3.61 / 3.77 | ERA / xERA | 2.67 / 3.05 |
| 3.93 / 3.67 | FIP / xFIP | 2.82 / 3.21 |
| 20.4% | K-BB% | 21.2% |
| 34.3% | GB% | 43.9% |
| .274 | BABIP | .251 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 106 | Location+ | 106 |
Yankees vs Rays MLB Trading Preview
Yankees vs Rays Pick, Trade Analysis
After sweeping the Red Sox, 2-0 in the American League Wild Card Round, the Yankees take on another divisional foe in the Rays.
While there are several great player-prop angles to attack on Saturday night, I will be taking more of a niche approach — targeting Rays’ speedster Chandler Simpson to record a Stolen Base in Saturday’s Game 1.
Simpson is one of baseball's best hitters, hitting .306, but the value is his history against Yankees' pitcher Gerrit Cole. In his past two encounters with Cole, Simpson is batting .333.
He is also an outlier on the basepaths having swiped 44 as a rookie in 2025, and led the American League with 46 stolen bases this season.
While Cole remains elite, he is structurally vulnerable to aggressive base runners. Having missed the 2025 season, we'll turn back the clock further. In 2024, Cole allowed 15 stolen bases in just 17 starts.
Cole is a power pitcher who prioritizes maximizing his velocity and spin rates to get strikeouts. Pitchers with high-effort deliveries inherently take a fraction of a second longer to deliver the ball to the plate than those who utilize a swift slide-step. For a burner like Simpson, an extra tenth of a second is all it takes to guarantee a safe slide.
The Yanks’ vet has also struggled more with his command this season, which also increases the likelihood of Simpson drawing a walk.
Moreover, I'm willing to invest shares in Simpson at 30% on Kalshi to steal at least one base on Saturday evening.
Pick: Chandler Simpson to Record 1+ Stolen Base (30 cents, Kalshi)
