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The Milwaukee Brewers host the San Diego Padres on October 3, 2026. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Fox Sports 1.
The Brewers are favored by -231 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Padres are +186 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Brewers Prediction
- Padres vs Brewers Pick: Under 7 (-110) | To (-125)
My Padres vs Brewers best bet is under 7 runs scored. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Padres vs Brewers Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +105 | 7 -100o / -119u | +186 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -126 | 7 -100o / -119u | -231 |
- Padres vs Brewers moneyline: Padres +186, Brewers -231
- Padres vs Brewers over/under: 7 (-100o / -119u)
- Padres vs Brewers spread: Brewers -1.5 (+105 ), Padres +1.5 (-126)
Padres vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| Robbie Ray | Stat | Jacob Misiorowski |
|---|---|---|
| 13-8 | W-L | 16-5 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 6.6 |
| 3.59 / 4.80 | ERA / xERA | 1.80 / 2.12 |
| 4.69 / 4.91 | FIP / xFIP | 2.17 / 2.29 |
| 8% | K-BB% | 31.3% |
| 34.1% | GB% | 44.1% |
| .260 | BABIP | .237 |
| 94 | Stuff+ | 128 |
| 90 | Location+ | 100 |
Padres vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The Padres quickly dispatched NL MVP frontrunner Pete Crow-Armstrong and the Chicago Cubs, outscoring them 12-1 in a two-game sweep.
This offense looks much different with Fernando Tatis Jr. finding his stride. After hitting just five home runs in 372 at-bats before the All-Star break, Tatis launched 20 in his next 282 at-bats.
With his power restored and Jackson Merrill finding his form as well, the Padres finished the second half with a 119 wRC+, No. 2 in MLB. Tatis and Merrill both ranked inside the top 15 in wRC+ during that span, at 172 and 148, respectively.
The Padres’ biggest weakness lies with their starting pitching. In the second half, San Diego ranked 25th in xERA (4.51) and an even worse 28th in xFIP (4.73). Midseason acquisition Casey Mize was atrocious, and that’s putting it lightly. The right-hander posted a 7.46 ERA across 10 starts and is currently on the injured list with an ankle sprain.
However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel for this Padres rotation. Nick Pivetta’s much-needed return has given San Diego at least two reliable starting options in himself and Michael King. Both handled themselves well in the Wild Card round.
The question marks come with Robbie Ray and Walker Buehler, with the former slated to start Game 1 of the NLDS.
Another trade deadline acquisition, Ray has largely struggled with the Padres. In nine starts, the southpaw has posted a 5.02 ERA. Perhaps most worrisome is his 1.53 WHIP. Excluding his 2023 season, which lasted just one start, Ray’s strikeout rate has fallen below 20% for the first time in his career, while his 4.82 xERA is his highest since the 2020 COVID-shortened season.
The good news is that if the lefty struggles, San Diego has the No. 1 bullpen in baseball ready to save the day.
The Padres’ bullpen posted a 3.52 xFIP and 3.15 xERA in the second half, both of which ranked first in MLB. Anchored by NL Reliever of the Year frontrunner Mason Miller, this is a unit that ranks inside the top five in K/9 and HR/9 allowed, while also sitting inside the top 10 in hard-hit rate allowed (31.9%, just 0.3 percentage points behind the Tigers for second).
This is a team I wouldn’t want to face in the postseason. The offense is clicking and the bullpen is elite. It’s on the starters to finish the job.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview
One of the more shocking developments of the 2026 season was that the No. 1 team in baseball was not the Los Angeles Dodgers. Rather, it was the 103-win Brewers, who are looking for the postseason success that has come few and far between in recent years.
I mentioned the Padres’ success at the plate in the second half of the season, and Milwaukee wasn’t too far behind. The Brewers finished third in MLB in wRC+ (111), led by Jake Bauers, Jackson Chourio and Brice Turang.
Chourio needs no introduction, while Turang has firmly established himself as a household name with back-to-back elite seasons at second base. The lefty finished just one stolen base shy of a 20-20 season and enters the postseason with a career-best 13.2% walk rate.
However, Bauers' second half deserves some attention. It was a complete surprise to see his name at No. 19 with a 143 wRC+ in the second half. The left-handed slugger’s .414 on-base percentage ranked third among all players during that span.
Where San Diego may have a slight advantage against this offense is Ray being a southpaw. If there’s one area where Milwaukee can struggle at times, it’s against left-handed pitching. That’s largely because many of the Brewers’ most productive bats hit from the left side.
Milwaukee finished the season with a 97 wRC+ against lefties, slightly below the league-average mark of 100. Its power was largely zapped (.134 ISO, 25th), though it still ranked seventh in on-base percentage.
Even with those lefty struggles, starting pitching shouldn’t be a concern for this team. Coming up in Game 1? Oh yeah, none other than NL Cy Young frontrunner Jacob Misiorowski.
Misiorowski is the type of player you dream of building in MLB The Show. He ranks in the 99th percentile or better among qualified pitchers in xERA (2.13), xBA (.174), K% (37.9%) and xwOBA (.226). He has allowed just 13 total barrels across 2,647 pitches. I could keep going, but you know how dominant the righty is.
The 24-year-old is an ace through and through and should find no shortage of success here. He’s also backed by an excellent bullpen, with the Brewers ranking inside the top 10 in both second-half xERA (3.55) and xFIP (3.84).
Padres vs Brewers Pick, Betting Analysis
While it’s never fun to bet an under with Robbie Ray on the mound, it’s time to bite the bullet as Milwaukee draws its lesser split after a week off.
Misiorowski has been near-unhittable this season, allowing more than two runs just three times in 24 starts since May. The Brewers have also won nine straight Misiorowski starts, allowing an average of just 2.2 runs per game during that stretch.
I’ve already mentioned how dominant both bullpens are, and if this is a close game, I’d be surprised to see either team let up. The only time I’d start to press the panic button is if Milwaukee pulls away early and San Diego opts to throw its B-team out there to preserve its arms for later in the series.
We saw games quickly unravel in the Wild Card Series, with overs finishing an unprecedented 7-1-1. That’s something I’d be shocked to see continue, and I’m happy to bet the Misiorowski under here.
Pick: Under 7 (-110)
