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The Atlanta Braves host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3 of their NL Wild Card Series on October 1, 2026. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NBC/Peacock.
The Phillies are favored by -115 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Braves are -105 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Phillies vs Braves prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Phillies vs Braves Prediction
- Phillies vs Braves Pick: Phillies ML (-115)
My Phillies vs Braves best bet is on Philadelphia to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Phillies vs Braves Odds
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 7.5 100o / -120u | -115 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 7.5 100o / -120u | -105 |
- Phillies vs Braves moneyline: Phillies -115, Braves -105
- Phillies vs Braves over/under: 7.5 (+100o / -120u)
- Phillies vs Braves spread: Phillies -1.5 (+155), Braves +1.5 (-190)
Phillies vs Braves Probable Pitchers
| Zack Wheeler (RHP, PHI) | Stat | Grant Holmes (RHP, ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 14-5 | W-L | 10-6 |
| 4.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 3.00 / 2.86 | ERA / xERA | 3.44 / 5.04 |
| 3.35 / 3.03 | FIP / xFIP | 4.76 / 4.55 |
| 22.6 | K-BB% | 8.3 |
| 43.3 | GB% | 43.7 |
| .268 | BABIP | .259 |
| 105 | Stuff+ | 88 |
| 107 | Location+ | 99 |
Phillies vs Braves MLB Betting Preview
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The best three words in sports are "Win or go home". Everything is on the line here after the Phillies rallied to win Game 2. Their season was on life support until Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper hit back-to-back homers to tie the game in the 7th, and Alec Bohm hit the go-ahead homer in the 10th.
The burning question for manager Don Mattingly: Who pitches? Zack Wheeler or Aaron Nola? The answer feels obvious: go with Wheeler, the staff's ace. It would be four days between starts and three days of rest for Wheeler.
Wheeler boasts a 3.00 ERA, a 2.86 xERA, and a 3.35 FIP. He's a strikeout machine, punching out 10.72 per nine, but his walk rate has grown to 2.61 this year. He's rounding into prime form at the best time, pitching to a 1.71 ERA in five September outings.
Diving into the Phillies' pen usage, everything is on the table. The Phillies can add two extra weapons to their pen, with Aaron Nola and Jesus Luzardo as options. Andrew Painter threw 37 pitches in game two — so he might not be an option for Mattingly. The good news? Jhoan Duran will be an option since Painter saved the pen on Wednesday.
Offensively, the Phillies looked rough in the stretch entering the playoffs, but all it takes is one or two long balls to shift this game in their direction.
So far in the Wild Card round, Alec Bohm has been the guy for the Phillies, leading them with a .375 average and a 1.319 OPS. Schwarber and Harper are always a threat, but Bohm playing this well gives Philly a boost.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
While the Phillies have multiple strong starter options for a do-or-die Game 3, the Braves have zero rotation depth, and it's showing. The options are a full bullpen game or an opener before Grant Holmes, or Grant Holmes on a short leash.
None of those are ideal options in this spot. The basic stats indicate Holmes had a solid year, posting a 3.44 ERA, but his 5.04 xERA and 4.67 FIP are terrifying in a playoff game. Holmes isn't a swing-and-miss pitcher, striking out just 6.8 hitters per nine innings, and when you can't strike hitters out, they get more chances to do damage.
Holmes also gets hit very hard, ranking in the 1st percentile in average exit velocity and third in hard-hit rate.
In this series, the Braves bats have been more reliable than the Phillies in the middle-to-bottom of the order. However, the top of the order has destroyed them. It starts with Ronald Acuna Jr. with no hits, Drake Baldwin hitting .222, and Matt Olson hitting .125.
Putting it lightly, the Braves will face an uphill battle winning this game if their three best hitters don't hit.
Phillies vs Braves Pick, Betting Analysis
Sure, the Phillies totally limped into the playoffs, but the Braves have some glaring issues of their own, and they're showing up at the worst time. The lineup has been unreliable, and the rotation is a mess.
I want Wheeler or even Nola if he's starting. The Braves have no pitching answers to contain the Philadelphia big boppers.
Take the pitching and road team on the ML.
Pick: Phillies ML (-115, BetMGM)
