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The Tampa Bay Rays host the New York Yankees on October 3, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on HBO Max.
The Rays are favored by -136 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Yankees are +113 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Yankees vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Yankees vs Rays Prediction
- Yankees vs Rays Pick: Under 7 (-115 at DraftKings | Play to -120)
My Yankees vs Rays best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Yankees vs Rays Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -199 | 7 -104o / -115u | +113 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +163 | 7 -104o / -115u | -136 |
- Yankees vs Rays moneyline: Yankees +113, Rays -136
- Yankees vs Rays over/under: 7 (-104o / -115u)
- Yankees vs Rays spread: Rays -1.5 (+163), Yankees +1.5 (-199)
Yankees vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| Gerrit Cole (RHP, NYY) | Stat | Drew Rasmussen (RHP, TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-9 | W-L | 16-5 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 5.0 |
| 3.61/3.77 | ERA / xERA | 2.67/3.05 |
| 3.93/3.67 | FIP / xFIP | 2.82/3.21 |
| 20.4% | K-BB% | 21.2% |
| 34.3% | GB% | 43.9% |
| .274 | BABIP | .251 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 106 | Location+ | 106 |
Yankees vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
New York Yankees Betting Preview
Right-hander Gerrit Cole gets the ball for the New York Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS. He put together another solid campaign in his return to baseball in 2026 and ended the year on a particularly high note.
He allowed just two runs in each of his final two starts, posting a 2-0 record with a 3.09 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP over that stretch. The latter of those two outings came against the Tampa Bay Rays, a game in which Cole surrendered just three hits across nearly six innings.
Tampa Bay is a team that Cole has historically dominated. Over the past 12 meetings, Cole is 5-2 with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
A pitching duel could be in store, given that right-hander Drew Rasmussen takes the mound for the Rays. One of the most consistently dominant pitchers in the AL over the past few years, Rasmussen is coming off the best season of his career.
A likely AL Cy Young finalist, the right-hander finished 2026 with a 16-5 record, a 2.67 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. His underlying metrics were equally impressive.
Entering the postseason, Rasmussen ranks in the top third of the league in xERA, xBA, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Like Cole, Rasmussen enters this series in particularly dominant form.
The 31-year-old has allowed one or fewer runs in five of his past six starts, posting a 3-0 record with a 1.43 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. The latest of those starts came against New York, a game in which Rasmussen allowed just one run on one hit across nearly seven innings.
Yankees vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
There were just seven total runs scored in that game, and another low-scoring affair is likely in Game 1 of the ALDS. Not only are both starting pitchers statistically and analytically excellent, but both have also fared well in this specific matchup.
Cole's success against the Rays was already highlighted above, but Rasmussen has been even more impressive against the Yankees. In 11 career meetings, Rasmussen is 5-2 with a 1.81 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP.
In 139 combined plate appearances against Rasmussen, the current New York roster owns a mere .163 batting average, a .256 slugging percentage and a .217 wOBA.
Pick: Under 7 (-115 at DraftKings | Play to -120)
