The Tampa Bay Rays host the Cincinnati Reds on April 22, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
The Rays are favored by -126 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +108 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Reds vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Reds vs Rays Prediction
Reds vs Rays SGP Picks:
- Rays F5 Moneyline
- Chandler Simpson 1+ Run Scored
- Chandler Simpson 1+ Stolen Base
Reds vs Rays Odds
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -205 | 8 -105o / -115u | +108 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +168 | 8 -105o / -115u | -126 |
- Reds vs Rays moneyline: Reds +108, Rays -126
- Reds vs Rays over/under: 8 (-105o / -115u)
- Reds vs Rays spread: Rays -1.5 (+168), Reds +1.5 (-205)
Reds vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| LHP Brandon Williamson (CIN) | Stat | RHP Nick Martinez (TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | W-L | 0-1 |
| -0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.2 |
| 4.35 / 6.70 | ERA / xERA | 2.45 / 4.62 |
| 6.04 / 6.34 | FIP / xFIP | 4.59 / 4.56 |
| 1.35 | WHIP | 1.23 |
| -1.1% | K-BB% | 7.6% |
| 28.6% | GB% | 42.3% |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 93 | Location+ | 106 |
Reds vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
Cincinnati Reds Preview
Both clubs entered the 2026 season surrounded by sizable uncertainty, with Wednesday’s matchup featuring two teams with fairly young lineups from top to bottom.
While the Reds had far more success in 2025, making the postseason, their 2026 lineup features several new faces — most notably the highly touted 22-year-old first-base prospect, Sal Stewart.
Cincinnati’s young star is on an absolute tear to start his MLB debut, hitting .300 with a 1.062 OPS — both top-five marks among qualified MLB hitters.
It is evident that Stewart boasts elite power at the plate, but it's his high-end contact rate that rounds out his versatile skill set.
The Reds’ youngster is very patient in the box, working counts, avoiding chasing, and rarely giving up easy outs, which has largely contributed to his remarkable on-base percentage.
Across the infield, Stewart plays alongside Reds’ superstar Elly De La Cruz, who surely needs no introduction.
While the 24-year-old franchise player has continued to be susceptible to being struck out at the plate, his overall output has remained strong, blasting 7 homers thus far.
Cincinnati’s youth will set them up for success for years to come, which makes the club’s hot start in 2026 far from surprising.
Tampa Bay Rays Preview
Like their Wednesday opponent, the Rays have a very young lineup of their own, featuring several high-upside talents, especially 22-year-old third baseman Junior Caminero.
In 2025, Junior played his first “real” MLB season, appearing in 154 games. To say that Caminero lived up to the hype would be a massive understatement, as the Dominican blasted a ridiculous 45 homers.
Alongside the stellar play from Junior, 25-year-old speedster Chandler Simpson is off to a hot start to his sophomore campaign as well, ranking among the top-10 qualified hitters in batting average.
Right-hander Nick Martinez is set to take the mound for the Rays and will look to build upon his stellar start to his 2026 campaign — the 35-year-old veteran has recorded an impressive 2.45 ERA over 22 innings pitched across his first four outings of the season.
For the visiting Cincinnati Reds, 6-foot-6 left-hander Brandon Williamson will be on the bump and will surely be looking to bounce back, having recorded a dreadful 4.35 ERA over his 20 2/3 innings thus far.
While the Rays definitely have a starting-pitching edge in Wednesday afternoon’s contest with Martinez posting a far superior ERA and WHIP than his counterpart, Williamson’s poor form thus far is a tad misleading — he allowed six earned runs behind three homers across 4 2/3 innings in his season debut and has been much better since, having allowed only four earned across 16 innings since.
Moreover, further analysis reveals that Wednesday afternoon’s pitching matchup is far closer to even than it may appear on the surface.
Reds vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
I think it is a great spot to back the Rays on Wednesday afternoon at their home park, Tropicana Field.
While Williamson has rebounded nicely since his disastrous season debut, Tampa has the clear pitching edge as Martinez has been the far more consistent starter in 2026.
I think targeting Tampa to prevail in the first five innings of the game is my preferred betting angle to the Rays' moneyline, as it more greatly emphasizes the starting pitching edge that the home team has on the bump in Wednesday’s contest.
Surprisingly, the Reds have actually fared much better on the road to start the 2026 season, while the Rays greatly prefer playing at home, which gives me greater confidence in backing their F5 number.
For a second betting angle on Wednesday’s interleague contest, I will be looking to take a much more value-oriented approach in the player prop markets.
While on the surface it appears that Williamson has fared better against right-handed hitters, which is a very common dynamic, a deeper look reveals that this does not tell the entire story, especially when it comes to hitting for power.
Though Cincinnati’s lefty has faced just 12 left-handed hitters this season compared to 61 on the right side of the plate, Williamson has allowed two homers to lefties compared to just one against righties.
The Reds’ 28-year-old has allowed an impressive .197 batting average to right-handed hitters, while lefties have had far more success, having recorded a .250 average over 12 plate appearances thus far.
The Rays' lineup features several lefties, including Simpson, Jonathan Aranda, and Cedric Mullins, which leads me to conclude that Williamson could have some problems matched up against Tampa’s lineup.
Among those lefties, I will be targeting Simpson in the player prop market.
Williamson boasts an impressive arsenal with the lefty heavily favoring off-speed pitchers compared to fastballs, frequently using a cutter, a sweeper, and an out-of-the-zone changeup when looking for strikeouts.
Given Simpson's high-contact rate, the 25-year-old often mitigates the effectiveness of off-speed pitches.
For a pitcher who very heavily relies on his off-speed arsenal, I expect Williamson to have problems matching up with Simpson on Wednesday.
I will be looking to take a shot on Simpson to score a run in Wednesday’s interleague showdown, as I have faith that his exceptional speed and patience in the batter’s box should lead to the speedster reaching the plate.
Also, for those looking for another value play, I think taking a shot on Simpson to record a stolen base is another solid angle.
Reds vs Rays SGP Picks:
- Rays F5 Moneyline
- Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 Runs Scored
- Chandler Simpson Over 0.5 Stolen Bases
